More Stories

Informist, Wednesday, Jun. 18, 2025

By Gopika Balasubramanium

MUMBAI – Analysts are divided on the market direction Thursday. Some analysts expect a bounce back due to the recent fall while others see the market remain range-bound in the near-term due to lack of positive triggers. Volatility in crude oil prices amid Israel-Iran conflict is a big concern, analysts said. Some analysts said the outcome of the two-day US Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting and comments by Chair Jerome Powell on interest rate trajectory will be key in determining the market direction, analysts said. 

Market has already exhausted most of the positive factors that came its way, be it the jumbo repo rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India or favourable monsoon outlook. Consumer inflation for May falling to levels last seen in February 2019 has also been discounted, analysts said. Market was also optimistic about government spending picking up in the coming quarters and improvement in earnings in Oct-Mar. The easing of selling pressure from foreign investors has also been factored in, analysts said. That said, analysts have expressed concern that the valuations of large-cap companies have turned expensive, indicating limited upside.

The Nifty 50 is expected to be in a range until there are fresh positive cues, Ajit Mishra, senior vice president of technical research at Religare Broking, said. Any gains are unlikely to sustain because of profit booking as traders expect very little upside, he said. Rising crude oil prices are also a concern as indications are that the prices will remain elevated until a resolution is found to the Israel-Iran issue, he said.

Crude oil prices started rising after Israel Thursday launched air strikes on Iran. The rising conflict has kept crude oil prices elevated at $75-$77 per barrel since Monday and there are also concerns that the prices may breach $80 per barrel, analysts said. At 1549 IST, the August Brent Crude contract was up 0.7% at $75.88 per barrel on the International Commodity Exchange.

"The emergence and escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict may have negative consequences for the Indian economy and market...," Kotak Securities said in its strategy report. "The impact on the economy will be felt through higher oil prices, while the impact on the market will be felt through lower earnings and/or lower (earnings) multiples," the brokerage said. However, Kotak Securities believes the Indian economy will not be affected meaningfully by $10-$20 per barrel rise in crude oil prices, given the size of the economy. "Nonetheless, higher oil prices could weaken one of the central arguments for high valuations of the Indian market," it said.

On Wednesday, the Nifty 50 closed at 24812.05 points, down 41.35 points or 0.2%. The BSE Sensex closed 0.2% lower at 81444.66 points, down 138.64 points or 0.2%. Technical analysts see support for Nifty 50 at 24850-24500 points and resistance at 25000-25200 points.  End

Edited by Ashish Shirke

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.