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Informist, Tuesday, Jun. 17, 2025

By Simran Rede

MUMBAI – The headline indices are likely to move in a tight range Wednesday on uncertainty as the Israel-Iran conflict intensifies. After the Nifty 50 failed to touch 25000 points despite being just 18 points away, analysts predict range-bound movement of the 50-stock index until it breaches either side of the 24700-24950 points range and finds a direction.

Going ahead, the market's direction will be determined by updates on the conflict in west Asia. If the widespread airspace closures across the region persist and the conflict worsens, investors' worries are likely to grow and result in selling pressure, a head of research at a domestic brokerage said. A rise in Indian equities is unlikely unless the conflict subsides and a peace deal is signed.

Additionally, if the price of Brent crude oil rises over $80 per barrel, the Nifty 50 is likely to see a 3-4% pullback from the current level, the research head said. At 1852 IST, the August futures Brent Crude contract on the International Commodity Exchange was up 2% at $74.68 per barrel.

Tuesday, the Nifty 50 closed at 24853.40 points, down 93.10 points or 0.4%. The BSE Sensex closed 0.3% lower at 81583.30 points, down 212.85 points. For Wednesday, analysts said the Nifty 50 could find support at 24700-24400 levels and face resistance around 24950-25200 levels.

Despite the overall bearish sentiment, market volatility has cooled. The India VIX, the fear gauge of the market, ended 3% lower at 14.4025. This indicates that market participants may have priced in the continuing geopolitical jitters and are not anticipating abrupt volatility spikes in the near term, Bajaj Broking Research said in a note.

The Nifty Bank closed 0.4% lower at 55714.15 points. "Going ahead, only a sustained close above the 56,000 mark could pave the way for further upside towards the 56,600 and 57,000 levels," Bajaj Broking Research said. However, if the index fails to surpass this level, it may result in continued range-bound movement between 56000 and 55000 points, with a likely shift in focus to stock-specific moves, the broking firm said.

The valuations of the Nifty 50 are stretched, but an above-normal monsoon, the pro-growth actions of the Reserve Bank of India, and changes in income-tax slabs are likely to improve corporate earnings for the June quarter, Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research at Ventura Securities, said. The earnings for the June quarter are expected to be better than the March quarter results, with expectations of gradual improvement in consumer demand and consumption in a quarter or two.

In the US, the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting is scheduled to begin later in the day. The rate-setting body is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at between 4.25% and 4.50%. Earlier, President Donald Trump had openly called for a full percentage point rate cut.  End

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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