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Informist, Tuesday, Jun. 17, 2025

MUMBAI – There is neither a possibility of El Nino nor La Nina till at least November, as the El Nino–Southern Oscillation continues to be in the 'neutral' category, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly report on Thursday. This is consistent with forecasts of seven of the eight international models it reviewed.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation stood at (-) 0.07 degrees Celsius as of Jun. 8, suggesting neutral conditions. For La Nina to emerge, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific should meet or fall below the threshold of (-) 0.8 degrees Celsius, and for El Nino, temperatures should meet or rise above 0.5 degrees Celsius.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is seen neutral at least till July, with the value at (-)0.17 degrees Celsius as of Jun 8. After July, the model forecasts a shift towards negative index values.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in sea surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India and vice versa. For monitoring the index, the bureau considers sustained values above 0.4 degrees Celsius as typical of a positive index, and values below (−) 0.4 degrees Celsius as typical of a negative index.

It is important to note that the Indian Dipole Index usually enters a "spring predictability barrier" after winter, the bureau said. During this period, the model's forecasts are intrinsically more uncertain, or less skilful, in connection with Northern Hemisphere spring. As such, skill for forecasts made at this time of year has been historically low in accuracy, it said.

The India Meteorological Department has said overall rainfall in the country during Jun-Sept is likely to be 106% of the long-period average, with a model error of plus or minus 4%.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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