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Informist, Monday, Jun. 16, 2025

MUMBAI – An "enhanced" probability of above-normal rainfall in India is expected in July and September, the APEC Climate Center said in its monthly climate outlook for Jul-Dec on Monday. The climate centre's El Nino-Southern Oscillation alert continues to be in 'inactive' mode, showing neither the La Nina nor El Nino were probable till at least December, it said.

The chances of El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions start at near 67.5% in July and decrease to about 51.4% in December, the climate centre said. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions generally mean near-average rainfall conditions for India, with the monsoon performing close to its historical average. La Nina is usually associated with good rainfall over India, while El Nino is associated with a drier climate and drought conditions.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is expected to be 0.06 degrees Celsius in July, with a slight decrease to (-)0.11 degrees Celsius by December. For La Nina to emerge, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific should meet or fall below the threshold of (-)0.8 degree Celsius, and for El Nino, temperatures should meet or rise above 0.5 degree Celsius.

The India Meteorological Department said overall rainfall in the country during Jun-Sept is likely to be 106% of the long-period average, with a model error of plus or minus 4%. 

Sea surface temperature anomalies are expected to be near normal along the equator from July to September, while weak negative anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific may appear from October to December. A negative anomaly refers to cooler-than-average temperatures on the ocean's surface, while a positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature is warmer than the reference value.

The climate centre has forecast a strong probability of above-normal temperatures for most of the globe, except the central and eastern tropical Pacific and Indian subcontinent for the forecast period.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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