More Stories

Informist, Friday, Jun. 13, 2025

MUMBAI – Shares of fast-moving consumer goods companies are expected to be in positive territory next week on the back of cooling headline inflation and optimism on account of the India Meteorological Department's forecast of above-normal monsoon for Jun-Sept. The sharp cut in the repo rate by the Reserve Bank of India is also likely to aid the sentiment.

The RBI's interest rate cut of 50 basis points surprised the markets last week as this was the steepest cut in five years. The Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank cut the repo rate to 5.50%, against expectations of a 25 bps reduction. The Indian economy seems to be in recovery mode with food inflation at 0.99% in May, its lowest level since March 2019, while CPI was at 2.82%, the lowest level since February 2019. Some economists now believe the June print could be even lower.

"Looking ahead, food inflation is likely to remain contained, supported by healthy agricultural activity and a favourable base," CareEdge Ratings Chief Economist Rajani Sinha said in a note. "Positive developments include good reservoir levels, the arrival of fresh rabi harvest, and encouraging agricultural production prospects."

The meteorological department has forecast above-normal rainfall in Jun-Sept over most parts of the country. The estimates are at 106% of the long-period average with a model error of plus or minus 4%, according to the second-stage long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon. The department had earlier predicted rainfall for Jun-Sept at 105% of the long-period average with a model error of plus or minus 5%.

Prices of robusta coffee have moderated 10% from their peak but are still up 21% on year. The softer inflation data is likely to bring some relief to the margins of Nestle India and Hindustan Unilever, Nomura Global Markets Research said in a report. However, this could be a negative for the business-to-business operations of Tata Consumer Products as it will have to cut prices and the benefits of low-cost inventory in its extraction and plantation business are likely to fade, according to the report.

In addition, analysts see the changes made to the income-tax slabs in the Union Budget for the financial year 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) benefiting consumers from the June quarter. They expect demand to start improving from the December quarter. Demand in urban areas was affected last year by the elections, intense heatwaves, and a dry marriage season in the first half of 2025, according to analysts and companies.

TOP HEADLINES

* LIC reduces stake in Marico by 2.01% since June 2021
* NCLT asks HUL to convene shareholders' meeting to demerge ice-cream business
* Maharashtra govt hikes excise duty on Indian Made Foreign Liquor by 50%
* United Spirits denies reports of parent co mulling stake sale in IPL's RCB

Following are the resistance and support levels for the stocks for next week as per calculations by Informist based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:

End

US$1 = INR 86.08

Reported by Simran Rede

Edited by Rajeev Pai

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.