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Informist, Friday, Jun. 13, 2025

By Akash Mandal

MUMBAI – Analysts are unsure of the direction the equities market would take next week, given the rise in tensions between Israel and Iran and the resultant uncertainty in west Asia. Some analysts expect the benchmark indices to bounce back a little after falling nearly 2% in the past two sessions. Others believe crude oil prices will remain higher and cap any gains in the market. On Monday, the Nifty 50 is seen moving in the range of 24500-25000 points.

The market's direction will depend on developments over the weekend, analysts said. "I expect the market to consolidate as I don't see crude prices normalising anytime soon if tensions between Iran and Israel do not subside," said Ajit Mishra, senior vice-president of technical research at Religare Broking. "Nifty (50) might rise back to 25000 (points) by the middle of next week if the situation improves... on the flip side, it might fall to 24400 levels if things worsen. It's all very uncertain."

Even in the case of a sharp fall, the Nifty 50 is not likely to go below 24000 points, Mishra added. Some market participants are also hoping for a recovery in the benchmark index next week after the fall seen Thursday and Friday. The Nifty 50 may rise by 200–250 points Monday if the situation in west Asia does not worsen over the weekend, a technical analyst at a domestic brokerage said.

Friday, the Nifty 50 closed 169.60 points, or 0.7%, lower at 24718.60 points as higher crude oil prices weighed on the market. The index had fallen over 400 points at the start of the sesion but recovered partially as crude oil prices fell a bit. Having risen over 13% earlier in the day, the Brent Crude futures traded at $74.66 per barrel at 1706 IST, up nearly 8%.

The market has now failed to be buoyed by two positive developments over the past seven days--the Reserve Bank of India's better-than-anticipated policy action Jun. 6 and further moderation in inflation in May. With the central bank having done its part, investors will now eye actions by the government to supplement those efforts, analysts said.

A broad-based reduction in household expenses through a cut in automobile fuel prices and a cut in goods and services tax rates to boost household savings are some steps the government could take to support the RBI's actions, Kotak Institutional Equities said in a strategy report Tuesday. "The government has enough fiscal space to attempt broad-based support or sector-specific stimulus," the broking firm said in the report.  End

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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