Informist Poll
WPI inflation likely eased to 14-month low of 0.7% in May
This story was originally published at 15:21 IST on 12 June 2025
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By Shubham Rana
MUMBAI – Wholesale inflation in India is likely to have moderated to a 14-month low of 0.7% in May mainly because of the statistical effect of a high base and lower food prices, according to an Informist poll of 10 economists. WPI inflation was 0.85% in April and 2.74% in May last year.
The economists' estimates for May WPI inflation ranged from 0.4% to 1.1%. The commerce ministry will release WPI data for May at 1200 IST Monday.
The base effect in May is such that even if the all commodities index were to remain unchanged from April, headline WPI inflation would moderate to 0.5%. At 0.7% WPI inflation, the all commodities index would have risen 0.3% on month in May. Typically, the index rises sequentially during the summer months mainly because of a rise in vegetable prices. On an average, the all commodities index has risen 0.4% on month in May in the last 13 years.
WPI food inflation is expected to have moderated last month from 2.6% in April, pulling down the headline wholesale inflation print. Food inflation likely fell in May because of lower cereal and pulses prices, while wholesale vegetable and edible oil prices showed a mixed trend during the month.
According to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, wholesale prices of rice declined 0.5% on month in May and wheat prices were down 1.0% from April. Pulses prices also fell last month, led by a 2.8% on-month decline in tur prices.
Among vegetables, wholesale prices of onion fell 11.5% on month in May, but potato and tomato prices increased 3.2% and 9.7%, respectively, from April. Wholesale edible oil prices, too, showed a mixed trend last month. Palm oil prices were down 1.4% on month, while mustard and sunflower oil prices rose from April.
WPI fuel inflation is also expected to have moderated in May because of a fall in crude oil prices. The Indian crude oil basket averaged $64.04 per barrel in May, down 5.4% from $67.73 per barrel in April. Fuel and power inflation fell to a four-month low of (-)2.18% in April.
Core WPI inflation--or inflation excluding food and fuel items, whose prices can be volatile--are also likely to have moderated in May to around 1%, from 1.5% in April. Economists at Union Bank of India said core WPI inflation is likely to have moderated last month because of softening global commodity prices, particularly metal prices.
WPI inflation is expected to stay below its retail counterpart, with an Informist poll seeing May CPI inflation at a six-year low of 3.0%. CPI data for May will be released at 1600 IST Thursday.
The following is a summary of the poll by Informist on WPI inflation in May:
| ORGANISATION |
WPI INFLATION ESTIMATE |
| Union Bank of India | 0.38% |
| ICICI Securities Primary Dealership | 0.5% |
| ICICI Bank | 0.58% |
| Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities | 0.62% |
| ICRA | 0.7% |
| Sunidhi Securities | 0.74% |
| India Ratings and Research | 0.8% |
| Nomura | 0.8% |
| STCI Primary Dealer | 0.9% |
| YES Bank | 1.10% |
End
Edited by Rajeev Pai
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