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Informist, Monday, Jun. 9, 2025

By Akash Mandal

MUMBAI – Analysts are split on the market movement Tuesday. Some analysts believe the benchmark indices are likely to consolidate after rising more than 2% over the last four sessions, while others expect the rally to continue and the Nifty 50 to test the 25300 level this week. The 50-stock benchmark is seen moving in the range of 24900-25300 points. Some analysts also expect some volatility before the weekly expiry of the derivatives contracts of the BSE Tuesday.

"Index (Nifty) has formed a small bear candle with a higher high, a higher low and a bullish gap below its base (25029-25077), signalling a positive bias and continuation of the up move," Bajaj Broking said in a note. "We believe the structure (will) remain positive and the index will head higher towards (an) immediate hurdle of 25250 and then towards 25500 in the coming weeks...dips in the coming sessions should be used as a buying opportunity," the brokerage added.

On the other hand, some analysts are skeptical about whether the rally will continue. "While the index (Nifty 50) has finally broken out of its long consolidation phase, the breakout candle is not very encouraging and signalling a potential reversal... tomorrow's (Tuesday's) trading activity will be crucial in determining whether the current trend will continue or reverse," Aditya Gaggar, director at Progressive Shares, said in a note.

This is the "last leg" of the current rally in the market, believes Jatin Gedia, technical research analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan. "We would have to see where this rally continues, probably till 25600-25700 (points)...post which, there is going to be a sharp correction before the market touches new highs," he said.

On Monday, the Nifty 50 ended at 25103.20 points, up 100.15 points or 0.4%, and the BSE Sensex closed at 82445.21, up 256.22 points or 0.3%. Banking, financial services, and information technology stocks were the biggest contributors to the rise in the benchmark index.

Emkay Global Financial Services sees a possibility of an upgrade in the earnings estimates for 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) if demand improves after the measures announced by the Reserve Bank of India on Friday. However, the broking firm also expresses concerns on the current valuations post the 11% rally over the past two months. The brokerage said it sees limited upside in the near-term for the market at current valuations.

The rally in indices after the RBI Monetary Policy Committee's outcome Friday was a "sentimental reaction", believes Purvi Mundhra, associate vice president - economist at Systematix Institutional Equities. However, urban demand still looks far off and corporate earnings will pick up only in the March quarter, she said. "There is a constant tug-of-war between the government and the RBI as the former is on a path of fiscal prudence and RBI is in an easing cycle...both need to work in tandem for substantial improvement in the economy," Mundhra added. While she expects the current "sentimental rally" to last for a while, she said the market will correct itself once its focus is back on fundamental indicators such as corporate earnings.  End

Edited by Nishant Maher

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