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Informist, Friday, Jun. 6, 2025

 

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--Metals Focus Barot: Don't see gold prices falling below $2,900 per ounce
--Metals Focus Barot: See gold supply in 2025 at 3,694 tn, up 1% from 2024
--CONTEXT: Remarks by Metals Focus' Harshal Barot at 'Gold Focus 2025' launch
--Metals Focus Barot: See 2025 a challenging year for jewellery consumption
--Metals Focus Sheth: Central bks buying gold to drive prices higher in 2025
--CONTEXT: Comments by Metals Focus' Chirag Sheth at 'Gold Focus 2025' launch
--Metals Focus Sheth: See double-digit fall in India's jewellery demand 2025
--Metals Focus Sheth: See demand for 18-karat gold jewellery rising in India
--Metals Focus Sheth: See silver prices at $45-$50 per oz in next 2 years

 

MUMBAI – Consultancy firm Metals Focus Ltd. expects global demand for gold jewellery to fall on account of high gold prices in 2025. The firm expects gold prices to rise further this year to hit another record high. Harshal Barot, senior consultant for precious metals – Middle East and South Asia, Metals Focus, said 2025 is going to be a challenging year for jewellery consumption. 

 

According to the 'Gold Focus 2025' report launched by the consultancy firm, jewellery demand is seen down 16% in 2025. India and China, two largest consumers of gold, will account for much of this decline. Chirag Sheth, principal consultant for precious metals – South Asia, Metals Focus, said India is likely to see double-digit fall in jewellery demand in 2025. 

 

However, the consultancy firm said the ongoing shift of demand to light-weight jewellery in India is likely to accelerate, particularly in the bridal segment. Sheth sees demand for 18-karat gold jewellery rising in India. Physical demand from consumers and private investors have also been resilient, the firm said. The report said higher gold prices with weak consumer sentiment amid a sluggish economy will impact demand for gold jewellery in China.

 

While jewellery demand has been hit hard, recycling is stagnant and demand for coin and bar sales, particularly in Asia, have been healthy, according to the consultancy firm. In 2024, the global recycling demand grew by 11% to a 12-year high of 1,368 tonnes.  

 

Although global gold mine production is likely to rise 1% on year to 3,694 tonnes in 2025, several supportive factors will limit the downside in gold prices to $2,900 per ounce this year, Barot said. Central bank buying is likely to drive gold prices higher in 2025, said Sheth. 

 

The annual average gold price is forecast to surge 35% to a new record high of $3,210 per ounce in 2025, the consultancy firm said. At 2126 IST, the most-active August gold contract on the COMEX was down 0.6% at $3,354.8 per ounce. On Apr. 22, gold had hit a fresh lifetime high of $3,500.8 per ounce on the COMEX.

 

The firm expects the yellow metal to soar as tariffs are likely to be higher than earlier even if the worst trade war is avoided. Moreover, even though the dollar as the main reserve currency is not under immediate threat, in the long run, concerns about the greenback's health is likely to support prices of gold, it said.

 

Meanwhile, silver prices are seen at $45-$50 per ounce in the next two years, said Sheth. The consultancy firm is "very bullish" on silver owing to strong supply-demand fundamentals. At 2126 IST, the most-active July silver contract on the COMEX was up 1% at $36.21 per ounce.  End

 

US$1 = INR 85.63

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Taniva Singha Roy and J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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