Monsoon Rains
IMD sees southwest monsoon above normal at 106% of long-period average
This story was originally published at 19:26 IST on 27 May 2025
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--IMD: India 2025 southwest monsoon rain seen 106% of long-period average
--CONTEX:IMD saw 2025 southwest monsoon rain at 105% of long- period average
--IMD: India 2025 southwest monsoon rains now seen better
--IMD: June rainfall seen above normal at 108% of long-period average
--CONTEXT: IMD details outlook for temperature, rainfall in June
--IMD: See south, central India Jun-Sept rains over 106% of long period avg
--IMD: Had above normal rainfall during pre-monsoon activity in India
--IMD: Neutral El Nino conditions prevailing at present
--IMD: Neutral El Nino conditions seen for remaining southwest monsoon
--IMD:See less than 94% of long period avg rains in Northeast India Jun-Sept
--IMD: See normal rainfall over Northwest India Jun-Sept
--IMD: See below normal rainfall over east, northeast during Jun-Sept
--IMD: See below normal heatwave days in Northwest India in Jun
--IMD: See below normal heatwave days in Central, East India in Jun
--IMD: See normal-below normal maximum temperature over most of India in Jun
--IMD: See above normal maximum temperature over northwest, northeast in Jun
--IMD: See above normal minimum temperatures over most of India in Jun
--IMD:See normal-below normal minimum temperature over south India parts Jun
--IMD:See normal-below normal minimum temperature in Central India parts Jun
--IMD: Not accounting May rainfall to southwest monsoon
--IMD: Too early to predict southwest monsoon advance over northwest India
--IMD:See rains above 114% of long-period avg in Haryana, Chandigarh Jun-Sept
--IMD: See rains above 114% long-period avg in Delhi Jun-Sept
NEW DELHI – The India Meteorological Department has forecast Jun-Sept rainfall this year at 106% of the long-period average with a model error of plus or minus 4%, according to the second-stage long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon. The department had earlier predicted rainfall for Jun-Sept at 105% of the long-period average with a model error of plus or minus 5%.
The weather bureau said that on an average it expects above normal rainfall over most parts of the country during Jun-Sept. Central and south peninsular India are expected to receive above normal rainfall at 106% of the long-period average, while rainfall is likely to be normal over the northwestern parts of the country at 92-108% of the long-period average.
Only northeast India is expected to receive below normal rainfall during Jun-Sept at less than 94% of the long-period average, the bureau said. "The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone, consisting of most of the rain-fed agricultural areas in the country, is most likely to be above normal," it said.
According to the bureau's forecasts for the season, there is 59% chance of above-normal monsoon rains and 31% chance of normal showers. The chances of below normal precipitation stand at 8% and that of deficient showers are just 2%.
The weather bureau classifies monsoon rainfall over the country as "deficient" if it is below 90% of the long-period average. Rainfall between 96% and 104% of the long-period average is classified as "normal", and 104-110% as "above normal". Rainfall over 110% of the long-period average is said to be in excess.
The weather bureau said the southwest monsoon rainfall over Haryana, Chandigarh, and Delhi would be 114% of the long-period average. Comparing with its earlier prediction for the southwest monsoon, which was issued Apr. 15, the bureau said it now sees rainfall being better.
Currently, it sees neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region for the southwest monsoon. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier, hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.
At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are present over the Indian Ocean and the latest climate models forecast that weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are likely to persist during the southwest monsoon period. The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean. Usually, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive dipole results in better rainfall. However, the weak negative conditions will not affect the country's southwest monsoon as much as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, India Meteorological Department Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.
The southwest monsoon hit Kerala Saturday, eight days before the normal onset date of Jun. 1. This is the earliest onset of the monsoon since 2009, when the monsoon had hit Kerala May 23. Though the monsoon arrived May 24, the weather department said rainfall during May will not be accounted in the southwest monsoon. Mohapatra also said it is "too early" to predict the onset of the southwest monsoon over northwest India. During Mar-May, the pre-monsoon rainfall was above-normal in India, he said.
The India Meteorological Department also released Tuesday its outlook for temperature and rainfall in June. It predicts rainfall for the month to be above normal at 108% of the long-period average. It said normal to above normal rainfall is "very likely" over most parts of the country in June. However, some southern parts of peninsular India and parts of northwest and northeast India are expected to record below normal rainfall.
The agency said normal to below normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country in June, but many regions of northwest and northeast India are likely to see above normal maximum temperatures. Above-normal minimum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country, except some parts of central India and the adjoining south peninsula where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are "very likely", it said.
The bureau said the number of heatwave days in northwest, central, and eastern India in June would be below normal. End
Reported by Afra Abubacker and Pallavi Singhal
Written by J. Navya Sruthi
Edited by Rajeev Pai
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