Informist Poll
Apr IIP growth seen at 8-month low on poor core sector show
This story was originally published at 10:32 IST on 27 May 2025
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By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI – Growth in India's industrial production, measured by the Index of Industrial Production, is likely to have fallen to an eight-month low of 1.0% in April, according to a poll of 11 economists by Informist.
Factory output growth likely declined mainly because of a poor performance by the eight core industries, which account for over 40% of the total weight of the IIP. Growth in core sector output fell to an eight-month low of 0.5% in April.
Industrial production had increased 3.0% in March and 5.2% in April 2024. The statistics ministry will release the IIP data for April at 1600 IST on Wednesday.
Along with core sector, vehicle production data also pointed to a slowdown in the pace of factory output last month. Vehicle production fell 1.7% on year in April, against growth of 6.5% in March.
Other high-frequency indicators such e-way bills and Purchasing Managers' Index, however, pointed to an uptick in industrial activity in April. The number of e-way bills generated rose 23.4% on year in April, the highest year-on-year growth in 18 months. Manufacturing PMI rose to a 10-month high of 58.2 in April but was only slightly higher than the 58.1 in March.
At 1.0% growth, the overall index in April is likely to have declined 9.3% from March. Factory output typically falls month-on-month in April, and has declined 10.7% on average over the last 12 years. The average doesn't include the pandemic-hit year of 2020.
The following is the summary of the poll on IIP growth in April:
|
ORGANISATION |
IIP GROWTH ESTIMATE |
|
Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities |
0.1% |
|
ICICI Bank |
0.4% |
|
CareEdge Ratings |
0.7% |
|
YES Bank |
0.9% |
|
ANZ Bank India |
1.0% |
|
Acuite Ratings and Research |
1.0% |
|
ICRA |
1.0% |
| Union Bank of India | 1.2% |
|
India Ratings and Research |
1.5% |
|
HDFC Bank |
1.8% |
|
Moody's Analytics |
3.0% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Avishek Dutta
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