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Informist, Monday, May 26, 2025

 

--IMD head: Each monsoon unique, can't compare 2025 monsoon to 2009 

--CONTEXT: India had received below-normal rains, harsh summer in 2009 

--CONTEXT: Monsoon onset in 2009 was on May 23, against May 24 in 2025 

--IMD head: Keep southwest monsoon forecast unch, no concern on early onset

 

By Afra Abubacker and J. Navya Sruthi

 

NEW DELHI/MUMBAI – The early arrival of the southwest monsoon this year does not raise any concerns about lower rainfall, India Meteorological Department Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said. India had a harsh summer and deficient rainfall in 2009, when the monsoon arrived early, on May 23.

 

In 2025, the southwest monsoon arrived on the Kerala coast on May 24, against the usual date of Jun. 1. However, Mohapatra dismissed any comparisons. "Each monsoon is unique," he said on the sidelines of the launch of the Bharat Forecast System here Monday.

 
Mohapatra said the department has forecast "excess rainfall" for the southwest monsoon season this year. "We are expecting above normal rainfall this year, and an early onset does not change that outlook," he said.

 

The weather bureau has forecast "above normal" rainfall during Jun-Sept at 105% of the long-period average with a model error of plus or minus 5%. It also said the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole were expected to be neutral during the southwest monsoon, resulting in above-normal rainfall.

 

In 2009, rainfall over the country was deficient at 689.9 millimeters, well below the normal of 892.5 millimeters. The weather bureau classifies rainfall between 96% and 104% of the long-period average as "normal" and 104-110% as "above normal". Rainfall over 110% of the long-period average is considered "excess" and below 90% is considered "deficient".

 

Asked about the likely date for the onset of the monsoon over Delhi, Mohapatra said it was "too early" to make a forecast. In its post on social media platform X, the weather bureau said the monsoon hit Mumbai Monday, 16 days ahead of its normal onset on Jun. 11. This is the earliest advancement of the monsoon over Mumbai since 2001.  End

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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