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Informist, Friday, May 23, 2025

MUMBAI – Sugar output in the US for 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) is projected at 9.29 million short tonnes, down from the relatively stable levels of 9.31 million short tonnes estimated in 2024-25, the US Department of Agriculture said in its May report. This figure represents the raw value of the sugar produced.

Cane sugar output is forecast at 4.11 million short tonnes, raw value, up 3% from 2024-25, while beet sugar output is forecast at 5.18 million short tonnes, raw value, down 3% from the previous season, the department said. Ending stocks for 2025-26 is projected at 2.03 million tonnes, according to the report.

Output in Louisiana, the second-largest sugar producer is projected at 2.08 million short tonnes, raw value, driven by continuation of moderate acreage growth in the state. In Louisiana, production grew for six consecutive years and surpassed Florida, the largest sugar-producing state in the US for four years, according to the department.

On the other hand, Florida's cane sugar production in 2025-26 is projected at 2.01 million tonnes, assuming stable acreage. Parameters such as sugarcane yield and sucrose recovery for both states are assumed to track recent years' averages under normal weather patterns, the report said.

For 2024-25, sugar production in the US is lowered from last month's estimate by 57,500 short tonnes, raw value to 9.31 million tonnes, mainly on reduction to the beet sugar output due to increased beet pile shrink and less sugar output from desugared molasses, the report said. Despite the downward adjustment, the 2024-25 domestic sugar output would match 2023-24 figures, at about 9.30 million short tonnes, as the largest on record, it said.

The bulk refined beet sugar nominal price for 2024-25 reported in Sosland Publishing's Sweetener Market hovers between 38–40 cents (around INR 8) per pound, down about 17 cents from the prior year as on May 14. "Beginning on its April 30 report, Sosland noted the spot beet sugar market was moved to nominal terms due to the lack of sales," the report said. "Sosland reported that forward trading of refined beet sugar for next year (2025/26) offered between 38–42 cents per pound, has been sluggish but also noted that beet processors consider 40 cents per pound as the breakeven price to cover their production costs."

In terms of imports, sugar imports by the US for 2025-26 are initially set at 2.48 short tonnes, raw value, and sugar from imported molasses is set at 54,645 short tonnes, raw value, the same as 2024-25. In 2024-25, sugar imports by the US are lowered from last month's estimate by 16,000 short tonnes, raw value, to 2.94 million short tonnes, raw value, the lowest level since 2007-08 and almost 1 million tonnes lower than last year, due to reduction in raw sugar imports, according to the report.

The US imported about 30,000 tonnes of high-tier certified-organic sugar in 2023-24, primarily from Brazil at 67%, followed by Colombia at 15%, India at 9%, and Paraguay at 8%, the report said. 

Sugar imports from Mexico are initially derived on the assumption that the 2025-26 additional specialty refined sugar tarrif rate quota, once announced, will not be lower than the 2023-24 level of 231,485 short tonnes.  

The department projected Mexico's sugar production at 5.094 million tonnes in 2025-26, reflecting a recovery of 283,000 tonnes. However, the country's 2024-25 sugar production is adjusted downward from last month's estimate by 48,000 tonnes to 4.81 million, tonnes which is lower than the fourth estimate published by Mexico's National Committee for the Sustainable Development of Sugarcane on May 6, reflecting a 2% fall. 

As of May 3, the cumulative production of low-polarity sugar amounted to 349,000 tonnes, already surpassing the 2023-24 total of about 295,000 tonnes. Mexico technically only needs to produce 298,000 tonnes of sugar. Mexico's 2025-26 sugar exports to the US are projected at 572,000 tonnes, 147,000 tonnes or 35% higher than 2024-25, the report said.  End

Reported by Taniva Singha Roy

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

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