Informist Poll
GDP growth picked up in Q4 but likely missed govt estimate
This story was originally published at 16:07 IST on 23 May 2025
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By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI – India's economy is expected to have performed better in Jan-Mar compared to the previous quarter even as GDP growth likely missed the government's implied estimate of 7.6% for the quarter.
According to an Informist poll of 19 economists, India's GDP growth is seen rising to a four-quarter high of 6.8% in Jan-Mar from 6.2% in the previous quarter. India's GDP had expanded 8.4% in Jan-Mar 2024.
"Growth in Q4 (Jan-Mar) though is higher than Q3 (Oct-Dec), however it is uneven across sectors with few of them registering better growth than others," said Jahnavi Prabhakar, an economist at Bank of Baroda. "Agriculture sector is expected to lift up growth, while subdued growth is expected in industry sector."
India's GDP growth moderated substantially last year, falling to a seven-quarter low of 5.6% in Jul-Sept, before recovering to 6.2% in the quarter ended December. The government's second advance estimate, released on Feb. 28, pegged GDP growth at 6.5% for 2024-25 (Apr-Mar), which implied GDP growth in Jan-Mar would be 7.6%.
With growth in the March quarter seen at 6.8%, the full year GDP growth for FY25 would moderate to 6.3%, assuming there is no substantial revision to the Apr-Dec data, economists said. The statistics ministry will release GDP data for Jan-Mar and FY25 at 1600 IST on May 30.
While GDP growth is seen higher in Jan-Mar, it is largely because of a statistical effect of higher taxes and falling subsidy payouts, economists said. Gross value added growth, which economists consider a more reliable indicator of economic activity than GDP, is seen rising only marginally to around 6.4% in the quarter ended March from 6.2% in Oct-Dec.
"Estimates of GDP in an India context are becoming increasingly challenging due to issues such as incomplete proxy data and sizable revisions," Barclays said in a report. "With Q4 FY25 data set to be released on May 30, we believe these complicating factors are set to make a comeback."
On the expenditure side, economists expect consumption demand to have remained modest, supported by rural demand, while urban demand continues to be subdued. "The improvement in rural demand is aided by strong crop output and some improvement in rural wage growth. The lacklustre growth in urban demand reflects slowdown in urban wage growth," Gaura Sen Gupta, chief economist at IDFC FIRST Bank, said in a report.
"Support to the capex cycle from government expenditure is expected to remain weak, based on fiscal data available for January and February," Sen Gupta noted. "Decline in capital expenditure is seen at both Centre and state government level. Meanwhile, private corporate capex is expected to remain tentative given uncertainties on both domestic and external demand outlook."
The following table details the GDP growth estimates of economists:
| ORGANISATION | JAN-MAR GDP GROWTH ESTIMATE | FY25 GDP GROWTH ESTIMATE |
| Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| ICICI Bank | 6.5% | 6.2% |
| State Bank Of India | 6.4-6.5% | 6.2-6.3% |
| Standard Chartered | 6.5% | 6.2% |
| Societe Generale | 6.6% | 6.2% |
| Bank of America Securities | 6.7% | 6.3% |
| Nomura | 6.7% | -- |
| Acuite Ratings and Research | 6.8% | 6.3% |
| ANZ Banking Group | 6.8% | 6.3% |
| CareEdge Ratings | 6.8% | 6.3% |
| HDFC Bank | 6.8% | 6.3% |
| India Ratings and Research | 6.8% | 6.3% |
| Bank of Baroda | 6.8-7.0% | 6.2-6.4% |
| ICRA | 6.9% | 6.3% |
| QuantEco Research | 6.9% | 6.3% |
| IDFC FIRST Bank | 7.0% | 6.3% |
| YES Bank | 7.1% | 6.4% |
| Barclays | 7.2% | 6.4% |
| ICICI Securities Primary Dealership | 7.2% | 6.4% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Vandana Hingorani
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