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Informist, Thursday, May 22, 2025

 

By Anand JC

 

NEW DELHI – NTPC Ltd.'s March quarter performance is expected to gain from higher electricity generation ahead of the summer season and from growth in regulated equity, analysts have said. However, some analysts are wary of lower realisations potentially restricting growth in the company's top line.

 

NTPC's net profit for the March quarter is expected to contract 0.2% on year to INR 55.5 billion, according to the average of seven analysts' estimates. Forecasts for NTPC's net profit range widely, with the expectation of Kotak Institutional Equities of INR 50.2 billion being the lowest. Equirus Securities has the highest expectation of NTPC's net profit at INR 60.1 billion.

 

JM Financial Institutional Securities expects the company's bottom line to contract due to an estimated decrease in other non-operating income by 56%. Further, NTPC in the base quarter had written back an exceptional item of INR 8.3 billion, which may have a bearing on the on-year reading of the power generator's bottom line.

 

Its revenue from operations for the reporting quarter is expected to rise 6% on year to INR 452.2 billion. Nuvama Wealth Management's forecast of INR 490.9 billion is the highest while the forecast of INR 415.9 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services is the lowest.

 

OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE

NTPC is India's largest power utility company, contributing to a quarter of the country's power requirements. Analysts expect a revival in power demand and growth in regulated equity to be the chief drivers of the company's revenue growth. NTPC functions on a tariff model regulated by the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission, which gives it fixed returns on power generation assets.

 

NTPC's consolidated regulated equity for the December quarter was INR 1.059 trillion, up 5% year-on-year, "...which is anticipated to grow at a double-digit rate in the near term, driven by projects under implementation", Elara Securities said in a note.

 

With the onset of summer, electricity generation in the March quarter was up 5% on year at 453 billion units, Elara said. However, this is still lower than the 6.3% on-year growth last year. Peak demand grew 6% on year to 237 gigawatt in the March quarter. 

 

Power generation by NTPC in the financial year 2024-25 (Apr-Mar) grew nearly 4% on year to 438.6 billion units. According to Equirus, this indicates a growth in power generation by NTPC of 4.3% in the March quarter.

 

NTPC generates power through thermal, hydroelectric, solar, and wind power plants. The company added roughly 1.3 gigawatt capacity in the final three months of FY25, of which coal-based generation accounted for 660 megawatts and solar for the rest. NTPC has guided to increase its thermal capacity by 26 gigawatt by FY32. Construction of 17.6 gigawatt capacity is already under way.

 

The company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation for the March quarter is expected to be INR 125.7 billion, according to the average of six analyst estimates. NTPC's EBITDA for the year-ago quarter was INR 113.3 billion. JM Financial expects NTPC's EBITDA growth for the reporting quarter to be flat on year as the expected increase in fuel cost may get offset by lower other expenses.

 

NTPC will declare its results Saturday. Since the company reported its December quarter earnings on Jan. 25, its shares have risen nearly 6%. Thursday, its shares closed at INR 341.40 on the National Stock Exchange, down 1.4%.

 

Following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates for NTPC Ltd., in INR million, based on reports from seven broking firms in descending order of net profit:

Brokerage	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Equirus Securities Pvt Ltd	4,44,442.00	60,118.00	1,31,871.00
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd	4,50,911.00	57,785.00	1,20,449.00
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	4,15,900.00	55,800.00	1,16,700.00
Mirae Asset Sharekhan Ltd	4,44,930.00	55,100.00
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	4,90,878.00	55,032.00	1,24,543.00
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	4,75,172.00	54,127.00	1,41,668.00
Kotak Institutional Equities	4,42,952.00	50,205.00	1,18,726.00
Average	4,52,169.29	55,452.43	1,25,659.50

 

End

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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