Indian Ocean Dipole to remain neutral till July, says Australia Met dept
This story was originally published at 16:57 IST on 22 May 2025
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MUMBAI – The Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral, and is likely to remain so until at least July, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly report. A neutral state indicates typical weather patterns without any significant anomalies in India, favouring a healthy southwest monsoon. As of Sunday, the value of the index stood at 0.24 degrees Celsius, dropping back into the neutral range following three weeks of values above the positive Indian Ocean Dipole threshold of 0.4 degrees Celsius, the bureau said in its report Tuesday.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in sea surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall. For monitoring the index, the bureau considers sustained values above 0.4 degrees Celsius as typical of a positive index, and values below (−) 0.4 degrees Celsius as typical of a negative index.
In its southwest monsoon forecast, the India Meteorological Department said neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are likely to continue during the southwest monsoon season. The India weather department has forecast above-normal southwest monsoon rainfall in the country this year as neutral El Nino conditions will prevail throughout the period. The weather bureau said overall rainfall during Jun-Sept is likely to be 105% of the long-period average with a model error of plus or minus 5%.
The El Nino–Southern Oscillation continues to be in the 'neutral' category, the Australian Bureau said. It said neither El Nino nor La Nina are likely until at least October, which aligns with the predictions of the other international models it reviewed.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation stood at (-) 0.01 degrees Celsius as of Sunday, suggesting neutral conditions. For La Nina to emerge, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific should meet or fall below the threshold of (-) 0.8 degrees Celsius, and for El Nino, temperatures should meet or rise above 0.5 degrees Celsius.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall. End
Reported by Shreya Shetty
Edited by Tanima Banerjee
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