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Informist, Friday, May 16, 2025

MUMBAI – The APEC Climate Center sees an "enhanced" probability of above-normal rainfall in India from June to August and a "strong" probability of above-normal precipitation from September to November. The climate centre's El Nino-Southern Oscillation alert continues to be in 'inactive' mode, showing neither the probability of La Nina nor El Nino till at least November, it said in its monthly forecast for Jun-Nov.

The chances of El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions start at near 70% in June and decrease to about 45% in November, the climate centre said. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions generally mean near-average rainfall conditions for India, with the monsoon performing close to its historical average. La Nina is usually associated with good rainfall over India, while El Nino is associated with a drier climate and drought conditions.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is expected to be near zero in May, with a slight decrease to 0.2 degrees Celsius by November. For La Nina to emerge, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific should meet or fall below the threshold of (-)0.8 degree Celsius, and for El Nino, temperatures should meet or rise above 0.5 degree Celsius.

The India Meteorological Department has forecast above-normal southwest monsoon rainfall in the country this year as neutral El Nino conditions will prevail throughout the period. The weather bureau said overall rainfall during Jun-Sept is likely to be 105% of the long-period average with a model error of plus or minus 5%. As of Tuesday, the southwest monsoon had advanced into parts of the south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, and Nicobar Islands, the Indian weather department said.

Sea surface temperature anomalies are expected to be near normal along the equator from June to August, while weak negative anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific may appear from September to November. A negative anomaly refers to cooler-than-average temperatures on the ocean's surface, while a positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value.

The climate centre has forecast a strong probability of above-normal temperatures for most of the globe, except the central and eastern tropical Pacific and Indian subcontinent for the forecast period.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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