Earnings Outlook
Petronet LNG Jan-Mar PAT seen up despite revenue fall
This story was originally published at 18:29 IST on 15 May 2025
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By Pallavi Singhal
NEW DELHI – Petronet LNG Ltd. is expected to report a year-on-year rise in its net profit for the quarter ended March despite a fall in revenue. While the profit is seen rising on higher margins as prices of spot liquefied natural gas increased a whopping 49% on year, revenues are seen falling on the back of low sales volumes, according to analysts.
The company's diverse portfolio of short-term and long-term contracts will pull its revenue down despite higher LNG prices. The company's net profit for the March quarter is seen rising 7% on year to INR 7.90 billion, according to the average of estimates by 12 brokerages available with Informist. The company's revenue for the March quarter, on other hand, is estimated to decline 12.4% to INR 120.84 billion on account of a double-digit decline in volumes, according to analysts. The company had reported a total revenue of INR 137.93 billion in the year-ago quarter and a net profit of INR 7.37 billion.
Sequentially, the company's net profit is expected to fall 8.9% and revenue is expected to decline 1.2%. Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. has the highest estimate for Petronet LNG's net profit at INR 9.24 billion and Nomura Equity Research has the lowest at INR 7 billion. The highest revenue estimate is from Elara Securities Pvt. Ltd. at INR 141 billion while Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. had the lowest estimate of revenue at INR 100.30 billion. For the December quarter, the company had reported a net profit of INR 8.66 billion on revenue of INR 122.26 billion.
The company's volumes have fallen on the back of rising spot liquefied natural gas prices, which were up 49% on year, averaging $14 per million British thermal units, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in a report.
The LNG prices are the highest since the December quarter of FY24 when these averaged $15.8 per million British thermal units. The spot LNG price for the December quarter was $13.9 per million British thermal units.
According to Nomura, there has been a 13% sequential decline in volumes at the Dahej terminal to 186 trillion British thermal units with utilisation declining to 83.5%, down from 95.6% in the previous quarter. The Kochi terminal utilisation is seen falling to 22% from 25% in the previous quarter, it said. Petronet controls nearly 50% of the domestic regassified LNG capacity, which includes its flagship terminal at Dahej, with capacity of 17.5 million tonnes per annum and a 5-million tonne per annum terminal in Kochi.
The rise in spot prices also triggered a fall in LNG imports in the March quarter, which rose only 5% on year, the lowest since the last quarter of FY23 when imports grew only 4.7% on year.
Petronet LNG is expected to post earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of INR 11.54 billion for the March quarter, according to the average of the estimates from 12 brokerages. The estimates for EBITDA range from INR 10.10 billion by Nomura Equity Research to INR 13.57 billion from Kotak Institutional Equities.
Between Jan. 27, when it reported its December quarter earnings and Wednesday, shares of Petronet LNG have risen about 3% and ended at INR 319.8 per share. Of the 12 brokerage reports of the company available with Informist, eight have a ‘buy' rating, two have a ‘hold rating', and five have a ‘sell' rating. The company will detail its financial results on Monday.
Following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates for Petronet LNG based on reports from 12 brokerage firms in descending order by the estimate of net profit:
Brokerage Firm | Net Sales (in INR million) | Net Profit (in INR million) | EBITDA (in INR million) |
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd | 112,546.00 | 9,246.00 | 13,212.00 |
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd | 126,171.00 | 8,758.00 | 12,448.00 |
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd | 134,700.00 | 8,600.00 | 12,500.00 |
Kotak Institutional Equities | 135,988.00 | 8,275.00 | 13,570.00 |
ICICI Securities Ltd | 115,400.00 | 8,000.00 | 11,400.00 |
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd | 108,877.00 | 7,705.00 | 11,186.00 |
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd | 114,710.00 | 7,701.00 | 11,195.00 |
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd | 141,008.00 | 7,567.00 | 10,905.00 |
Equirus Securities Pvt Ltd | 136,092.00 | 7,514.00 | 10,784.00 |
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd | 100,300.00 | 7,300.00 | 10,800.00 |
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd | 120,438.00 | 7,113.00 | 10,456.00 |
Nomura Equity Research | 103,800.00 | 7,000.00 | 10,100.00 |
Average | 120,835.83 | 7,898.25 | 11,546.33 |
End
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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