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Informist, Tuesday, May 13, 2025

 

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--India Apr CPI inflation 3.16% vs 3.34% Mar 
--Informist poll estimated India Apr CPI inflation at 3.2% 
--India Apr CPI food inflation 1.78% vs 2.69% Mar 
--India Apr CPI rural inflation 2.92% vs 3.25% Mar 
--India Apr CPI urban inflation 3.36% vs 3.43% Mar 
--India Apr CPI general index up 0.3% on month 
--India Apr CPI food price index down 0.2% on month 
--India Apr CPI cereals and products index down 0.6% on month 
--India Apr CPI vegetable index down 3.0% on month 
--India Apr CPI pulses and products index down 2.0% on month 
--India Apr CPI oils and fats index up 0.4% on month 
--India Apr CPI food, beverage index down 0.1% on month 
--India Apr CPI housing index up 0.9% on month 
--India Apr CPI clothing, footwear index up 0.3% on month 
--India Apr CPI fuel and light index up 0.7% on month 
--India Apr CPI miscellaneous index up 0.6% on month 
--India Apr CPI inflation of 3.16% lowest in 69 months 
--India Apr CPI inflation of 3.16% lowest since July 2019 
--India Apr CPI core inflation 4.1% vs 4.1% March

 

NEW DELHI – India's headline CPI inflation fell to a 69-month low of 3.16% in April because of a decline in food prices and the statistical effect of a high base, data released by the statistics ministry Tuesday showed. The last time inflation was lower than April's print was in July 2019.

 

At 3.16%, retail inflation in April is broadly in line with the consensus estimate. According to an Informist poll, headline inflation was seen at 3.2% in April.

 

This is the sixth month in a row that CPI inflation has declined, and also the third consecutive month when it has stayed below the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4%. CPI inflation was 3.34% in March and 4.83% in April 2024.

 

Even as headline inflation moderated in April, the general index of the CPI rose 0.3% from March. This is the first time the general index has risen month-on-month since October. 

 

Food inflation fell to a 42-month low of 1.78% in April, pulled down by vegetable inflation, which was at a 26-month low of (-)10.98% last month. The food index fell 0.2% on month in April, with the vegetable and pulses indices falling 3.0% and 2.0%, respectively, from March. The fuel and light index was up 0.7% on month in April.

Core inflation--which excludes food and fuel items, whose prices can be volatile--remained at 4.1% for the second consecutive month in April. The last time core inflation was higher than 4.1% was in October 2023, when it was 4.3%.

 

Three of the four sub-components of core inflation rose on month in April. The clothing and footwear index was up 0.3% from March, the housing index rose 0.9% on month in April, and the miscellaneous index increased 0.6% from March.

 

Rural inflation fell to 2.92% in April from 3.25% in the previous month. Urban inflation was higher than rural inflation but also moderated in April to 3.36% from 3.43% in March.

 

"The slight fall in India's consumer price inflation in April, which pushes it further below the RBI's 4% target, supports our view that the central bank will press ahead with more interest rate cuts over the coming months," Joe Maher, assistant economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. Maher said India's central bank can lower interest rates by an additional 50 basis points over the coming months. 

 

The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee has lowered the policy repo rate by 50 bps over the last two meetings in February and April, and is widely expected to reduce interest rates by 25 bps in June to boost economic growth. 

 

The following table details sequential and annual changes in the main components of the CPI (Combined):

 

	Weight	Index for April	Month-on-month change (in %)	Year-on-year change (in %)
				April	March
Cereals and products	9.67	198.9	(-)0.6	5.35%	5.93%
Meat and fish	3.61	225.7	1.8	(-)0.35	0.32%
Egg	0.43	183.2	(-)2.2	0.83%	(-)3.10%
Milk and products	6.61	188.7	0.3	2.72%	2.62%
Oils and fats	3.56	186.0	0.4	17.42%	17.07%
Vegetables	6.04	176.8	(-)3.0	(-)10.98%	(-)7.04%
Pulses and products	2.38	192.0	(-)2.0	(-)5.23%	(-)2.73%
Sugar and confectionery	1.36	134.5	0.6	4.59%	3.89%
Spices	2.5	221.6	(-)0.2	(-)3.40%	(-)4.92%
Food and beverages	45.86	196.0	(-)0.1	2.14%	2.88%
Pan, tobacco and intoxicants	2.38	210.9	0.0	2.08%	2.48%
Clothing and footwear	6.53	196.1	0.3	2.67%	2.62%
Housing	10.07	185.3	0.9	3.00%	3.03%
Fuel and light	6.84	179.5	0.7	2.92%	1.42%
Miscellaneous	28.32	190.3	0.6	5.02%	4.99%
General Index	100	192.6	0.3	3.16%	3.34%
Consumer Food Price Index	39.06	194.6	(-)0.2	1.78%	2.69%

 

End

 

Reported by Shubham Rana

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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