Informist Poll
WPI inflation likely fell to an 8-month low of 1.4% in April
This story was originally published at 14:10 IST on 13 May 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Tuesday, May 13, 2025
By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI – India's wholesale inflation likely fell to an eight-month low of 1.4% in April because of lower commodity prices and a high base effect, according to an Informist poll of 12 economists. WPI inflation was 2.05% in March and 1.19% in April 2024.
Economists' estimates for WPI inflation ranged from 1.0% to 2.0%. The commerce ministry will release WPI data for April at 1200 IST on Wednesday.
WPI inflation is expected to moderate in April "mainly due to global decline in crude oil and metal prices," economists at Union Bank of India said in a report. Commodity prices globally fell in April because of an uncertain demand outlook with crude oil prices hitting a four-year low last month.
On the domestic front, wholesale food prices continued to decline in April. According to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, wholesale prices of onion and potato fell 15.9% and 1.8%, respectively, in April from the previous month. However, tomato prices rose 0.4% from March. Wholesale prices of rice, wheat, and pulses also fell month-on-month in April, while edible oil prices rose.
"Fuel WPI is to see a sequential decline during April due to fall in crude prices in international markets. Whereas, core WPI too may see a correction due to fall in global metal prices in April."
Core WPI inflation--or inflation excluding food and fuel items, whose prices can be volatile--is seen easing to near 1% in April from 1.5% in March.
Apart from moderating price pressures, a statistical effect of a high base is also likely to have pulled down WPI inflation in April, economists said. The base effect is such that even if the all commodities index of WPI remains unchanged from March, WPI inflation would fall to 1.1% in April.
If WPI inflation does fall to 1.4% in April, as is expected, the all commodities index would rise 0.3% from March, the first month-on-month rise since October.
WPI inflation is expected to stay below its retail counterpart, with an Informist poll seeing April CPI inflation at a near-six-year low of 3.2%. CPI data for April will be released at 1600 IST on Tuesday.
The following is a summary of the poll by Informist on WPI inflation in April:
| ORGANISATION | WPI INFLATION ESTIMATE |
| CareEdge Ratings | 1.0% |
| ICICI Securities Primary Dealership | 1.1% |
| Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities | 1.1% |
| Union Bank of India | 1.12% |
| ICRA | 1.4% |
| India Ratings and Research | 1.4% |
| ICICI Bank | 1.40% |
| Nomura | 1.5% |
| Sunidhi Securities | 1.53% |
| YES Bank | 1.56% |
| STCI Primary Dealer | 1.70% |
| Acuite Ratings and Research | 2.0% |
End
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (11) 4220-1000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.
To read more please subscribe
Share this Story:
