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Informist, Tuesday, May 13, 2025

 

NEW DELHI – Amid record wheat production, the US Department of Agriculture has projected wheat supply in the 2025-26 marketing year at 1,073.7 million tonnes, up 4.9 million tonnes from last year. USDA has also forecast increased wheat consumption and trade, and slightly higher stocks, the department said in its May report. The global wheat marketing year is an aggregate of local marketing years. 

 

USDA sees wheat output in 2025-26 at a record 808.52 million tonnes, up from 799.71 million tonnes last year. "Increased output for the European Union, India, the UK, China, Argentina, Russia, and Canada is expected to more than offset reductions for Kazakhstan, Australia, Pakistan, and the United States," it said in the report. However, it has lowered beginning stocks for several countries, most notably China, Turkey, and the EU.

 

Global wheat consumption is expected to rise 4.4 million tonnes to a record 808.0 million tonnes in 2025-26 as food, seed, and industrial use is expected to continue growing, USDA said. Meanwhile, feed and residual use are expected to increase relatively less with ample coarse grain supplies, it added. India and the EU have the largest estimated increases for wheat consumption. 

 

According to the report, global wheat exports in 2025-26 are seen at 213.0 million tonnes, up from 206.1 million tonnes last year, but well below the record 222.2 million tonnes in 2023-24. "The EU is expected to show the largest year-to-year increase among major exporters, up 7.5 million tonnes to 34.0 million tonnes. Russia is projected to remain the leading 2025-26 global wheat exporter at 45.0 million tonnes, up from 43.5 million for 2024-25," the report said. 

 

Exports are also projected to be higher for Argentina and the Ukraine and lower for Australia, Kazakhstan, and the US. Ending stocks of wheat in 2025-26 are estimated at 265.7 million tonnes, up 0.5 million tonnes from last year. China and Pakistan account for the largest reductions, while the largest increases are for India, the US, and the EU.

 

RICE

USDA has pegged higher rice supply and lower trade in 2025-26. Rice production is forecast at a record 538.7 million tonnes, up from 537.7 million tonnes last year. The largest increases are for India, Bangladesh, and China.

 

"Production in India for 2025 is forecast at a 10th consecutive record, but the increase is moderated by a decline in harvested area. Partly offsetting are lower production forecasts for Indonesia and Brazil," USDA said. 

 

Global rice consumption is projected at a record 538.8 million tonnes in 2025-26, mostly due to higher use by India, Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Nigeria. "Consumption in China is projected nearly unchanged, as more competitive coarse grain prices keep rice feed use restrained," the report said. 

 

Global rice exports are forecast slightly lower at 60.8 million tonnes, against 61.4 million tonnes last year, but still the second-highest level on record. "India remains the leading exporter at 24.0 million tonnes, or nearly 40% of global trade. Continued larger and competitively priced exports by India are forecast to limit export growth by other major Asia rice exporters in 2025-26," the report said.  End

 

Reported by Afra Abubacker

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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