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Informist, Monday, May 12, 2025

By P Madhu Kumar

MUMBAI – Lupin Ltd.'s consolidated net profit is seen doubling from a year ago in the March quarter on the back of robust US sales, improvement in domestic formulations and the latest approvals from the US Food and Drug Administration for new drugs and manufacturing facilities, according to brokerages. The drugmaker's net profit is seen rising to INR 7.42 billion in the March quarter, up 100% from a year ago, according to the average of estimates from 14 brokerages. 

The net sales of the Indian pharmaceutical major are likely to rise nearly 12% on year to INR 55.61 billion in Jan-Mar, according to the average of the estimates. The estimates for revenue range from INR 53.36 billion by ICICI Securities to INR 57.63 billion by Choice Equity Broking.

According to Mostilal Oswal, the rise in net sales will be aided by the company's US sales, which are expected to increase by 16% on year to $243 million or INR 20.74 billion, driven by the consumption of its niche products such as Suprep and Albuterol. Lupin's total sales in the December quarter were INR 57.68 billion, of which over 36% came from the US.

Sequentially, both consolidated net profit and revenue are seen declining during the quarter. The net profit is seen falling by 13% and the revenue by 4% from a quarter ago.

The earnings before income tax, depreciation and amortisation is projected at INR 12.67 billion, according to the average of the estimates. The estimates range from INR 10.46 billion by ICICI Securities to INR 14.18 billion by 

Ashika Stock Broking.

US sales of Mirabegron saw a decline in the latest quarter. Mirabegron accounts for a significant portion of Lupin's US sales. There is also uncertainty around the product as a US court has ruled against the company in a patent infringement case related to Mirabegron, which is used to treat symptoms of an overactive bladder.

The company will announce its Jan-Mar results on Wednesday.

Analysts will closely watch the management's comments on new product launches like gXarelto 2.5mg, Tolvaptan, Glucagon, and Liraglutide. Analysts will also keep an eye on the status of approvals for biosimilars and the new manufacturing unit at Somerset in New Jersey. The company has increased the number of filings for Abbreviated New Drug Application during the quarter.

On Monday, shares of Lupin closed at INR 2,039.80 on the National Stock Exchange, up 0.1%.

Following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates for Lupin based on reports compiled by Informist from 14 brokerages in descending order of net profit in INR billion:

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Edited by Saji George Titus

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