Oil Stocks Outlook
Seen lower next week; focus on GAIL Jan-Mar results
This story was originally published at 21:49 IST on 9 May 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Friday, May 9, 2024
MUMBAI – Oil and gas stocks are expected to trade lower next week after the Nifty Oil & Gas index snapped a four-week rising streak this week. There is a high probability that the sectoral index might test its 50-day moving average of 10600 points in the coming few trading sessions, a Mumbai-based technical analyst said. Next week, investors will also track the earnings of natural gas marketer GAIL (India) Ltd., due on Tuesday.
The Nifty Oil & Gas index closed Friday's session at 11016.70 points, down 0.8% from the previous close. The index rejected levels of 11400 points this week to edge lower, the technical analyst said. While the benchmark Nifty 50 fell only 1.4% this week, the sectoral index fell 2.2%. Oil and gas stocks saw profit booking in the past four days similar to the Nifty 50, but fell more.
GAIL will report its earnings on Tuesday, with analysts expecting a 10% on-year fall in its net profit but a 7.5% increase in revenue for the March quarter. However, the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation is expected to report a sharper fall than its bottom line on account of weaker performance in gas marketing and petrochemicals segment, according to analysts.
Shares of city gas distributors outperformed in the last week due to a fall in crude oil prices, said Yogesh Patil, director of research at Dolat Capital. Oil marketing companies reported better-than-expected earnings for the March quarter due to better inventory and higher marketing gains, surprising analysts positively, Patil said.
He expects the June quarter to be a bumper one for the oil and gas players as Singapore gross refining margins are better now compared to a year ago, and liquefied petroleum gas companies' under-recoveries to fall in the ongoing quarter. These positive expectations may guide the companies' share prices in the coming months, he said.
Brent Crude oil prices have remained volatile in recent weeks owing to geopolitical uncertainty and have traded around $60-$65 per barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other non-OPEC oil-producing countries have planned a second straight output hike of 411,000 barrels a day in June, potentially restoring the 2.2-million-barrels-per-day level by November. However, oil prices cooled off after the US and the UK signed a trade deal, which could potentially lead to similar agreements with other countries.
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Following are the resistance and support levels for the stocks for next week as per calculations by Informist based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:
| Company | Price | Week-on-week change in % | Resistance | Support |
| Bharat Petroleum Corp | 306.85 | (-)1.40 | 311.20 | 299.20 |
| Hindustan Petroleum Corp | 386.25 | 0.30 | 392.80 | 376.80 |
| Indian Oil Corp | 139.99 | (-)2.30 | 142.70 | 136.20 |
| Oil & Natural Gas Corp | 234.96 | (-)3.50 | 239.80 | 226.10 |
| Oil India | 403.30 | (-)0.40 | 413.80 | 383.80 |
| Reliance Industries | 1377.20 | (-)3.20 | 1402.50 | 1361.90 |
| NIFTY OIL & GAS | 11016.70 | (-)2.20 | 11128.50 | 10829.30 |
| Nifty 50 | 24008.00 | (-)1.40 | 24264.50 | 23807.50 |
| S&P BSE Sensex | 79454.47 | (-)1.30 | 80549.80 | 78420.70 |
End
US$1 = INR 85.38
Reported by Anand JC
Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj
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