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Informist, Friday, May 9, 2025

 

MUMBAI – The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is neutral, indicating there is no probability of either the El Nino or the La Nina weather phenomenon at least till the end of October, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service said in a monthly update on Thursday.

 

The weather agency sees a 74% chance of El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions in the northern hemisphere summer months, which span from June to August. Chances of a neutral state fall to around 50% during September and October. During November to January 2026, the chances of El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions stand at 46%, while that of a La Nina event stand at 41%, the agency said. The northern hemisphere includes the entirety of North America, Europe, some parts of Africa and South America, and the majority of Asia, which includes India.

 

All the latest El Nino-Southern Oscillation index values were near zero, ranging from (-) 0.2 degrees Celsius to 0.1 degrees Celsius, the US agency said. For La Nina to emerge, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific should meet or fall below the threshold of (-) 0.8 degrees Celsius, and for El Nino, temperatures should meet or rise above 0.5 degrees Celsius. 

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall. 

 

Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department has forecast above-normal rainfall in May, at 109% of the long-period average. The southwest monsoon is likely to advance into the south Andaman Sea, some parts of Bengal, and the Nicobar Islands by Tuesday, earlier than usual, it said.

 

In its southwest monsoon forecast update on Apr. 15, the Indian weather department said it expects above-normal southwest monsoon rainfall this year as neutral El Nino conditions will prevail throughout the period. The weather bureau Tuesday said overall rainfall during Jun-Sept is likely to be 105% of the long-period average, with a model error of plus or minus 5%.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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