Earnings Outlook
Weak India, global sales to weigh on Bharat Forge's result
This story was originally published at 16:45 IST on 7 May 2025
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By Gopika Balasubramanium
MUMBAI – Bharat Forge Ltd.'s net profit for the March quarter is expected to decline by a low single-digit year on year, primarily due to weak demand for commercial vehicles in both domestic and export markets, as well as a slower ramp-up of revenue in the defence sector. The net profit may also fall due to sluggish demand from the global automotive industry, especially in the passenger vehicles segment. The company's earnings in the coming quarters may be weak due to higher US tariffs and complex global supply chains, according to analysts.
The Pune-based company is expected to report a net profit of INR 3.73 billion in the March quarter, down more than 4% from the year-ago quarter, according to an average of estimates from five brokerages. The company's revenue is seen falling nearly 4% on year to INR 22.31 billion. Sequentially, the net profit may go up nearly 8% and the revenue is expected to rise a little over 6%.
Nomura Global Markets Research has the highest projection for both the bottom line and the top line at INR 3.96 billion and INR 23.12 billion, respectively. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. has the lowest estimates for both net profit and sales at INR 3.54 billion and INR 21.37 billion, respectively.
The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the March quarter is seen at INR 6.41 billion, according to an average of estimates from four brokerages. The estimates for EBITDA range from INR 6.22 billion to INR 6.58 billion. The consolidated EBITDA margin likely improved by 240 basis points on year, mainly because of improved profitability in overseas subsidiaries, ICICI Securities said.
In the December quarter, the company's net profit had fallen a tad over 8% on year to INR 3.46 billion while revenue was down 7% on year at INR 20.96 billion. The revenue from the domestic market in the December quarter accounted for 44% or INR 9.19 billion of the total revenue while exports accounted for 55% or INR 11.51 billion.
The company will detail its March quarter earnings Thursday. At 1449 IST, shares of Bharat Forge were nearly up 5% at INR 1,141.10 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock has risen 6% from its closing price on Feb. 13, the day after Bharat Forge released its results for the December quarter.
Following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates for Bharat Forge based on reports compiled by Informist from five brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit:
Brokerage | Net sales (in INR million) | Net profit (in INR million) | EBITDA (in INR million) |
Nomura Equity Research | 23,115.00 | 3,959.00 | 6,581.00 |
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd | 22,691.00 | 3,889.00 | 6,467.00 |
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd | 22,520.00 | 3,652.00 | 6,366.00 |
HDFC Securities Ltd | 21,841.00 | 3,590.00 | N.A |
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd | 21,374.00 | 3,538.00 | 6,219.00 |
Average | 22,308.20 | 3,725.60 | 6,408.25 |
End
Edited by Subhojit Sarkar
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