More Stories

Informist, Wednesday, May 7, 2025

MUMBAI – The Indian Ocean Dipole index stood at 0.5 degrees Celsius as of Sunday, above the positive threshold of 0.4 degrees Celsius for the second consecutive week, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly report Tuesday. 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in sea surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India and vice versa. For monitoring the index, the bureau considers sustained values above 0.4 degrees Celsius as typical of a positive index, and values below (−) 0.4 degrees Celsius as typical of a negative index.

However, it is important to note that though the Indian Ocean Dipole index has been at a positive value for two weeks, it is still classified as neutral. The value needs to be sustained above the positive threshold for at least six to eight consecutive weeks for the Indian Ocean Dipole to be classified as a positive event. 

The Australian weather department expects the Indian Ocean Dipole to remain neutral at least till August. This is consistent with a range of international models that are also predicting a neutral event for at least the next two months.

Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department has forecast above-normal rainfall in May, at 109% of the long-period average. The weather bureau said normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over many parts of the country, except some parts of northwest, central, east, and northeast India where below-normal rainfall is likely in May. 

Additionally, the southwest monsoon is likely to advance into the south Andaman Sea, some parts of Bengal, and the Nicobar Islands by Tuesday, earlier than usual, the Indian weather department said.

There is neither a probability of the El Nino nor the La Nina at least till September, the Australian weather bureau said. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation will remain in the 'neutral' category for the forecast period, which aligns with the predictions of the other models it has reviewed.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation stood at (-) 0.03 degrees Celsius as of Sunday, suggesting neutral conditions. For La Nina to emerge, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific should meet or fall below the threshold of (-) 0.8 degrees Celsius, and for El Nino, temperatures should meet or rise above 0.5 degrees Celsius. 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Subhojit Sarkar

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.