Earnings Outlook
Bharti Airtel may see low like-to-like revenue growth QoQ
This story was originally published at 13:05 IST on 6 May 2025
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By Rajesh Gajra
NEW DELHI - The top line performance of telecom services provider Bharti Airtel Ltd. is likely to be hit by low like-to-like India mobile revenue growth in the March quarter. But this is likely to be offset by a full-quarter consolidation of Indus Towers' business and expected mid-single digit growth in the company's Africa business and the enterprise segment, according to analysts.
The operating profit is unlikely to show any exceptional performance amid expectations of weak to flattish sequential increase in average revenue per user in the India mobile segment of the company. The bottom line of Bharti Airtel is seen falling sequentially as the previous quarter's net profit included a large one-time gain.
Bharti Airtel is likely to report a consolidated net profit of INR 58.1 billion for the March quarter, according to the average of the estimates of eight brokerage firms. Excluding an outlier estimate of INR 34.6 billion by brokerage JM Financial Institutional Securities, the lowest among all, the consolidated net profit is seen falling 58% sequentially and rising 2.9 times to INR 61.5 billion. The rest of the estimates vary from a low of INR 55.7 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management to a high of INR 76.5 billion by Centrum Broking.
Analysts see the consolidated revenue of the company increasing 8% sequentially and 29% on year to INR 486.5 billion. The revenue estimates range from a low of INR 475 billion by brokerage Sharekhan to a high of INR 505.9 billion by ICICI Securities. The company is seen reporting consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of INR 266.4 billion.
In the December quarter, Bharti Airtel's consolidated net profit had jumped 4.1 times on quarter to INR 147.81 billion. This was largely on the back of a one-time gain of INR 75.5 billion reported by the company due to one-time gain from the consolidation of Indus Towers' accounts. The consolidated revenue from operations had increased 9% on quarter to INR 451.3 billion.
For the latest quarter, Bharti Airtel's sequential growth in top line is seen lower than in the previous quarter. In the first two months of the latest quarter, Bharti Airtel's India wireless subscribers increased 0.8% compared to the December-end level, an analysis of data from Telecom Regulatory Authority of India showed. Analysts expect the full-quarter sequential growth in this metric to be 1-1.5%.
Bharti Airtel's like-to-like revenue is likely to increase only 2% sequentially in the March quarter, brokerage Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in its preview report. But the reported consolidated revenue growth is likely to be higher at 9% quarter-on-quarter, aided by a boost from the full-quarter consolidation of the numbers of Indus Towers, according to the brokerage. The passive telecom infrastructure company became a subsidiary of Bharti Airtel from Nov 19. The company's average revenue per user for its mobile services is likely to increase only 1.2% on quarter to INR 248, according to brokerage Prabhudas Lilladher, while ICICI Securities said its March quarter estimates "point to mobile services revenue dip" of 0.1% sequentially for the company.
The company's India mobile services EBITDA is likely to grow 1.4% on quarter, driven by subscriber gains and ongoing upgrades to smartphone plans, according to brokerage JM Financial Institutional Securities. Motilal Oswal expects the company's consolidated EBITDA to decline 7% on quarter "on a like-for-like basis due to lower prior period provisions for Indus". In both revenue and EBITDA performance of the company, Prabhudas Lilladher said Bharti Airtel's "Africa, enterprise and home services will show steady growth ahead, while DTH (direct to home) business will be muted".
The sequential growth in Bharti Airtel's bottom line during the quarter will be dragged down by the high base from a one-time gain from a substantial exceptional income from Indus Towers, whose accounts were consolidated with the parent in the December quarter. Adjusted for this, Motilal Oswal expects the company's consolidated net profit to increase 7% on quarter to INR 59 billion. Motilal Oswal also expects the company's bottom line to be hit by a fall in other income to INR 5 billion in the March quarter from INR 21 billion in the previous quarter.
The company will detail its earnings for the March quarter on May 13. Investors will monitor the impact of Indus Towers' consolidation on the EBITDA and net profit, and also seek the management's commentary on the normalisation of revenue growth in the India mobile services segment after tariff hike, the outlook for the Africa business, and the reach of fibre-based home broadband.
At 1230 IST, shares of Bharti Airtel were 2.1% higher at INR 1,904.90. At the current price level, the company's shares have risen 15% from INR 1,660.45 on Feb 5, the day prior to the December quarter earnings announcement by the company on Feb 6.
Following are the Oct-Dec consolidated earnings estimates for Bharti Airtel based on reports from eight brokerage firms in descending order of estimate of net profit:
| Brokerage firm | Net sales | Net profit | EBITDA |
| (In INR million) | |||
| Centrum Broking Ltd | 486,904 | 76,451 | 256,392 |
| ICICI Securities Ltd | 505,878 | 67,586 | 291,419 |
| Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd | 476,000 | 59,000 | 269,000 |
| Sharekhan Ltd | 475,280 | 58,000 | -- |
| Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd | 487,970 | 57,888 | 263,504 |
| Kotak Institutional Equities | 475,000 | 55,825 | 264,000 |
| Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd | 479,859 | 55,688 | 260,054 |
| JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd | 505,303 | 34,599 | 260,548 |
| Average | 486,524 | 58,130 | 266,417 |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Avishek Dutta
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