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Informist, Friday, May 2, 2025

MUMBAI – Shares of oil companies are expected to rise further next week as analysts believe that earnings growth of these companies are likely to improve in the next three or four quarters, along with refining margins. The movement of global crude oil prices will also be closely monitored. Crude oil fell to around $60 per barrel this week from the high of $69 per barrel in the previous week. With the March quarter earnings in focus, Hindustan Petroleum Corp.'s results are awaited on Tuesday. 

HPCL is seen posting on-year as well as on-quarter fall in growth. The state-owned oil refining company is expected to post nearly 37% on-year fall in its net profit in the latest quarter to INR 18 billion and revenue is likely to decline nearly 6% to INR 1.078 trillion, according to the avearge of estimates from 11 broking firms. Sequentially, this would mean an over 40% decrease in the bottom line and 2% drop in the top line. 

Companies in the oil sector that have released their March quarter earnings are Reliance Industries, Bharat Petroleum Corp., and Indian Oil Corp. Oil refining companies such as BPCL and IOC said they will increase their share of crude oil imports from Russia in the current financial year, which would likely aid their refining margins. "Only everything depends on Russian discount. Russian discounts are still continuing at $3-$3.5. Refining margins will be better," BPCL's Chief Financial Officer V.R.K. Gupta said in a post-earnings call with analysts Friday. Oil marketing companies in India had procured crude from Russia at a discounted price, but the oil's availability fell significantly during the March quarter due to rise in demand from Syria. 

Shares of Reliance Industries gained the most this week, up 9% from the previous week. The stock rose after the company posted higher-than-expected results for the March quarter and as various broking firms raised their stock target prices. Upstream oil companise such as Oil and Natural Gas Corp. and Oil India are yet to declare the dates for their quarterly results.

TOP HEADLINES
* Analyst Concall: BPCL aims to lift margin by procuring more crude from Russia
* US natural gas stocks rise by 107 bcf in week ended Apr 25, says EIA
* Earnings Review: Fall in costs lifts IOC Jan-Mar PAT by 50% YoY, beats view
* UAE-based ADNOC Trading signs pact to supply LNG to HPCL's Chhara terminal
* Earnings Review: BPCL Jan-Mar net profit slumps 24% on year as GRM falls
* Analyst Concall: MRPL plans INR 10-bln capex in FY26, 50% on refinery ops
* Earnings Review: RIL Jan-Mar net profit rises 2.4% on yr, beats Street view
* RIL to focus on mitigating near-term headwinds in oil-to-chemicals segment
* Global gas production expected to grow 2% in 2025, says exporters' group
* PM Modi lays foundation stone for BPCL's LPG bottling plant in Bihar

Following are the resistance and support levels for the sector's key stocks for next week, as per calculations based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:

End

US$1 = INR 84.58

Reported by Anjana Therese Antony
Edited by Vandana Hingorani

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