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Informist, Friday, May. 2, 2025

By Gopika Balasubramanium

MUMBAI – The benchmark equity indices are expected to continue going through a phase of consolidation next week in the absence of fresh triggers, though they may open higher Monday, said analysts. The lack of clarity on how the tension between India and Pakistan will play out is a key factor that is likely to keep the market in a range, they said. The March quarter earnings and company-specific news may result in stock-specific actions.

"Market is not willing to move up sharply as it has gained significantly in a very short time," said Nandish Shah, technical and derivatives analyst at a domestic brokerage. The Nifty 50 rose 9% from 21743.65 points on Apr. 7, the lowest level it has hit so far in 2025. It has been mostly above 24000 points in the past nine trading sessions. Shah believes this kind of consolidation after sharp gains is normal, and said the downside for the near term is limited. He expects the 50-stock index to find support at 24100 points and face resistance at 24589 points.

On Friday, the Nifty 50 closed at 24346.70 points, up just 12.50 points. The BSE Sensex ended 0.3%, or 260 points, higher at 80501.99 points. The Nifty 50 moved within a 400-point range this week and is expected to move in a tight range in upcoming trading sessions, too. 

The benchmark indices are likely to be rangebound for the next 1-2 sessions as the market looks to consolidate at current levels, Jatin Gedia, technical research analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, said. "Structurally, the index still looks strong... sentiment is sideways to positive," Gedia said.

The March quarter earnings have not been "secular" so far and it is difficult to comment on the trend until more results are declared, a head of research at a domestic brokerage said. However, most banks have reported good earnings, especially players in the private sector, along with some mid-cap information technology companies, the research head said. On the other hand, earnings of consumer goods companies have been disappointing so far, the analyst said. The market is likely to rise once the earnings rush is over, but the geopolitical tension between India and Pakistan will remain as a short-term trigger for a fall, the research head said.

On the earnings front, investors will keep an eye on the March quarter earnings of State Bank of India and Kotak Mahindra Bank, both due Saturday. The public-sector lender's net profit is likely to decline 15% on year to nearly INR 176 billion, while its net interest income will rise just 3% on year to about INR 428 billion. Kotak Mahindra Bank is expected to report a decline of 14% on year in its bottom line to nearly INR 36 billion, while its top line is likely to rise 7% to over INR 74 billion.  End

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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