Earnings Outlook
M&M Jan-Mar PAT seen up 23% YoY on robust volumes
This story was originally published at 18:30 IST on 1 May 2025
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By Narayana Krishna
HYDERABAD - Double-digit volume growth in both passenger vehicles and tractors is likely to drive Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd's March quarter earnings on a year-on-year basis, while earnings may fall sequentially, according to analysts.
M&M is expected to report a net profit of INR 24.7 billion for Jan-Mar, up 23% on year but down 17% on quarter, according to an average of estimates from 10 brokerage houses. Revenue for the quarter is pegged at INR 304.3 billion, up 20% on year, but down 2% sequentially, the estimates show.
While year-on-year growth is likely to have been led by decent volumes in both automotive and tractor segments, higher base and unfavorable product mix could lead to the sequential decline, analysts said.
Analysts' estimates for M&M's March quarter net profit range from a low of INR 21.6 billion by Nomura Equity Research, to a high of INR 28.8 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. The estimates for revenue range from the lowest of INR 297.4 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., to the highest of INR 319.8 billion by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. The company is scheduled to announce its Jan-Mar earnings on Monday.
Both Kotak Institutional Equities and ICICI Securities project M&M's overall revenue growth at 20% year-on-year. The company's automotive revenue is expected to grow 18% on year led by a 17.5% growth in volumes, and tractor revenue is estimated to grow 21%, led by a 23% growth in volumes, ICICI Securities said.
According to Kotak, M&M's March quarter revenue growth is likely to be led by an 18% year-on-year growth in the tractor segment's revenues, mainly due to a 23% increase in volumes, and a 20% increase in the automotive segment's revenues. Automotive segment revenue is expected to be driven by a 17% rise in volumes, led by sport utility vehicles and exports, Kotak said.
Motilal Oswal said M&M is best placed among automobile manufacturers as growth in both its core underlying segments, SUVs and tractors, outpaced the growth of peers. The company had reported volume growth of 15% on year, led by 23% and 18% year-on-year growth in tractors and automotive segments, respectively.
HSBC Global Research said M&M's sequential performance may be hit by a fall in tractor sales. The brokerage projected the company's March quarter auto segment volumes to grow by 3% quarter-on-quarter and 17.5% year-on-year, while tractor volumes are estimated to decline 28% sequentially but grow 23% on year.
MARGINS
Most analysts expect M&M's March quarter earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation margins to see an improvement on a year-on-year basis but contract on a sequential basis. While most analysts' estimates for M&M's Jan-Mar EBITDA margin were in the 13.6% to 14.3% range, Nomura Equity Research has a different view.
Nomura has projected M&M's March quarter EBITDA margin at 11.9%, significantly lower compared to others. It expects the company's EBITDA margin to decline 270 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 11.9% due to an adverse mix with higher electric vehicles' share and lower share of tractors. The brokerage also expects some impact from the re-evaluation of its international farm equipment subsidiary, as indicated by the company earlier.
The average of estimates of nine brokerages available for M&M Jan-Mar EBITDA is pegged at INR 41.9 billion.
Investors will watch out for management commentary on the outlook for demand for tractors and passenger vehicles. Analysts are also looking for booking trends for its electric vehicles and the waiting period for other flagship models.
On Wednesday, shares of Mahindra & Mahindra ended at INR 2,928.80 on the National Stock Exchange, up 0.7% from the previous close. M&M has gained nearly 10% in the past 30 days, but lost nearly 3% so far in 2025.
Following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates for Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. based on reports from 10 brokerage firms in the descending order by the estimate of net profit:
Brokerage name | Net Sales | Net Profit | EBITDA |
| --in million rupees-- | ||
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd | 3,06,601.00 | 28,787.00 | 43,284.00 |
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd | 3,19,785.00 | 27,771.00 | 44,695.00 |
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd | 3,02,681.00 | 26,783.00 | 43,586.00 |
ICICI Securities Ltd | 3,03,863.00 | 25,014.00 | -- |
HSBC Global Research | 3,01,389.00 | 24,080.00 | 41,290.00 |
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd | 2,97,423.00 | 23,717.00 | 41,864.00 |
Kotak Institutional Equities | 3,01,524.00 | 23,599.00 | 43,061.00 |
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd | 3,07,440.00 | 23,124.00 | 42,599.00 |
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd | 2,98,057.00 | 22,489.00 | 40,536.00 |
Nomura Equity Research | 3,04,718.00 | 21,601.00 | 36,367.00 |
Average | 3,04,348.10 | 24,696.50 | 41,920.22 |
End
Edited by Vandana Hingorani
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