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Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 30, 2025

MUMBAI - The global copper market is expected to be in a surplus of 289,000 tonnes this year and about 209,000 tonnes in 2026, the International Copper Study Group has said in a report. The study group earlier expected a surplus of 194,000 tonnes in 2025.

Global copper mine production is expected to rise by 2.3% this year to 23.5 million tonnes, benefiting mainly from additional output from the ramp-up of the Kamoa mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia, and the commissioning of the new Malmyzh mine in Russia. These will be partially offset by expected declines in production from Australia, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan.

In 2026, global copper mine output is projected to increase by 2.5%, supported by the continued ramp-up of new or expanded capacity, an expected improvement in Chilean and Zambian output, and a recovery in Indonesia from reduced output in 2025.

Global refined copper production is projected to rise by about 2.9% this year due to the continued expansion of Chinese capacity and the start-up of new capacity in several countries such as Indonesia, India, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The study group lowered the global refined copper demand growth forecast for 2025 to 2.4% from its previous projection of 2.7%, as uncertainty around international trade policies is likely to weaken the global economic outlook and negatively impact demand for copper. In 2026, the group expects demand for refined copper to rise by 1.8%. Demand for the red metal in China is expected to rise by around 2% this year and 0.8% in 2026.

"Asia will continue to be the main driver of global growth, with demand in other key copper using regions remaining subdued," it said.  End

Reported by Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Subhojit Sarkar

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