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Informist, Tuesday, Apr. 29, 2025

By Anjali Lavania

MUMBAI – Prices of precious metals, including gold and silver, are expected to surge in the near term due to persisting geopolitical uncertainty, policy instability and strong demand, the World Bank said Tuesday in its Commodity Markets Outlook report. Precious metals have shown significant appeal as safe-haven assets in recent years. The rally in prices, which began in late 2024, has continued in the first quarter of 2025, with gold leading the surge. 

GOLD

"With persistent uncertainty and elevated geopolitical tensions, gold prices are expected to reach an all-time high in 2025," the report said. If geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty become even more pronounced, gold prices could exceed current projections.

Gold prices are projected to rise 36% on year in 2025 before softening in 2026, assuming that policy uncertainty will start to abate. Prices of the yellow metal are expected to remain about 155% above their 2015-19 average throughout the forecast period, the report said.  

In recent weeks, gold prices surged to record levels, rose 7% in the March quarter and reached an all-time high in early April. This upward momentum can be largely attributed to strong safe-haven demand amid elevated policy uncertainty and rising trade tensions. Moreover, continued central bank purchases, as part of broader reserve management strategies, have also played a crucial role in supporting prices.

SILVER

Silver demand is expected to grow steadily over the forecast horizon, supported by its role as both an alternative safe-haven financial asset and an input in growing industrial sectors like renewable energy technologies and semiconductors, the report said. Moreover, demand is expected to increase, driven by record-high industrial fabrication and global photovoltaic installations. However, these industries face potential downside risks from recent tariff announcements.

On the supply side, global silver production is anticipated to reach a seven-year high in 2025, with increased output from countries such as Canada, Peru, the Russian Federation, and the US, along with rise in supplies from silver recycling. 

Robust demand is projected to dominate, lifting prices by 17% in 2025 and a further 3% in 2026, the report said. Silver has shown positive momentum, with prices increasing by 2% in the first quarter, the report added. End

Reported by Anjali Lavania

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

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