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Informist, Tuesday, Apr. 29, 2025

 

MUMBAI – Base metal prices are projected to fall 10% in 2025 and 3% in 2026 due to subdued growth in demand and steadily rising supply, according to a World Bank report titled 'Commodity Markets Outlook'. Recent and anticipated tariff increases on trade in metal-intensive products between major markets are expected to curb consumption and dampen the demand for metals, it said.

 

These pressures are compounded by continued weakness in China's property sector, which has weighed on demand for construction-related metals such as iron ore and zinc, despite stimulus measures, the report said. However, the expanding adoption of renewable energy technologies and related infrastructure, particularly in China, is expected to provide some offsetting support to demand for metals such as copper and nickel.

 

Aluminium prices are projected to decline 10% in 2025 and a further 3% in 2026, as the softening demand outlook outweighs limited increases in production. The report said that growth in demand for aluminium is expected to slow sharply over the next two years amid heightened trade tensions and decelerating global industrial activity. However, its long-term demand outlook remains solid due to the metal's key role in renewable energy technologies.

 

Copper prices are projected to fall by 10% in 2025 and a further 2% in 2026 because of weaker demand growth and steadily rising supply, with additional production expected from Africa, East Asia, the Russian Federation, and South America, the report said. However, copper's growing use in renewable energy technologies should partly offset subdued demand.

 

Lead prices are expected to fall by 2% in both 2025 and 2026. "With lead used mainly in batteries for internal combustion engine vehicles, demand growth is likely to be tempered not only by subdued growth in the major economies but also by the increasing penetration of EVs (electric vehicles) in the global automotive fleet," it said.

 

Similarly, zinc prices are expected to decline by 10% in 2025 and 5% in 2026. "Zinc demand growth is set to slow as China's economy continues to decelerate in the forecast period, partly reflecting persistent weakness in its real estate sector," the report said.

 

Nickel prices are projected to fall by 6% in 2025 before bouncing back 1% next year as the demand-supply balance starts to tighten, it said. Tin prices are set to rise by 3% in 2025 and 2% in 2026. Iron ore prices are projected fall by 13% this year and 7% in 2026.  End

 

Reported by Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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