Informist Poll
March IIP growth seen rising to 3.3% from 2.9% in Feb
This story was originally published at 16:00 IST on 25 April 2025
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By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI – India's industrial production likely grew at a faster rate in March than February because of an increase in the number of working days in the month, according to an Informist poll. As per the median of estimates of nine economists, industrial growth--as measured by the Index of Industrial Production--may have risen to 3.3% in March from a six-month low of 2.9% in February.
In March 2024, industrial production had grown by 5.5%. IIP data for last month will be released at 1600 IST Monday, with the statistics ministry having brought forward the publication of the data to reduce the time lag to four weeks from six.
The impact of higher number of working days in March has already shown up in core sector data for the month. Released earlier this week on Monday on its new release date, the data from commerce ministry showed output of India's eight core industries--which account for over 40% of the total weight of the IIP--was up 3.8% year on year in March from February's five-month low of 3.4%. Sequentially, the index of the eight core industries was 11.5% higher in March.
A 3.3% year-on-year growth in the general index of the IIP in March implies a 9.3% jump in output from February, which would be the best sequential improvement in three years. The likely sharp month-on-month pick-up in industrial production is expected to be sufficiently strong to overpower the high base effect, with the IIP having risen 8.8% in March 2024 from the previous month.
Other high-frequency indicators--such as e-way bills, Purchasing Managers' Index, and vehicle production--also point to an up-tick in industrial activity in March. The number of e-way bills generated were up 20.2% year-on-year in March compared with a 14.7% growth in February, while the manufacturing PMI rose to 58.1--the joint-highest in nine months--from 56.3 in February. Growth in vehicle production also increased to 6.5% from 2.2% in February.
The following is the summary of the poll on IIP growth in March:
|
ORGANISATION |
IIP GROWTH ESTIMATE |
|
ICICI Bank |
3.1% |
|
Standard Chartered |
3.1% |
|
STCI Primary Dealer |
3.2% |
|
HDFC Bank |
3.3% |
|
ICRA |
3.3% |
|
State Bank Of India |
3.4% |
|
YES Bank |
3.4% |
|
India Ratings and Research |
4% |
|
Union Bank of India |
4.3% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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