Earnings Outlook
Moderating same-store sales may hurt Trent's Jan-Mar show
This story was originally published at 15:06 IST on 25 April 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Friday, Apr. 25, 2025
By Avishek Rakshit
KOLKATA – Moderating same-store sales and operational deleverage are expected to dent fashion retailer Trent Ltd.'s earnings performance in the March quarter. The company is expected to post a 48% on-year decline in its net profit to INR 3.4 billion, but the revenue could rise 34% on year to INR 42.8 billion, according to the average of estimates from seven brokerages.
Sequentially, the profit could dip 28%, and revenue could decline 5.6%. The Tata group company had reported a net profit of INR 6.5 billion in the year-ago quarter, and of INR 4.7 billion in Oct-Dec. Its revenues were INR 31.9 billion in the year-ago quarter, and INR 45.3 billion in the December quarter. The company will declare its earnings for the quarter and year ended March on Tuesday.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. has the lowest net profit estimate of INR 2.7 billion and Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd. has the highest net profit estimate of INR 4.6 billion. Sharekhan Ltd. had the lowest revenue estimate of INR 40.8 billion and Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. had the highest revenue estimate of INR 44.4 billion.
The huge gap in the estimates of the brokerages is mainly on account of difference in estimates of the impact of net new store openings and sales per square foot.
Kotak Institutional Equities said it expects a 36% on-year revenue growth on account of 132 net store additions on a sequential basis. It said Trent has opened 122 new Zudio branded stores, which cater mainly to the new generation's fashion needs, and 10 new Westside branded stores, which are primarily targeted at the premium segment, in Jan-Mar. However, the net impact of new stores could be partially offset by a 4.6% on-year decline in revenue per square feet, Kotak cautioned, and added that it expects the store area growth at 43%, driven by addition of larger-sized stores.
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. projected the net new store additions lower at 98 for the reporting period. Morgan Stanley said the fashion business revenue could taper off by 2% sequentially to 35% in Jan-Mar with the 132 Westside and Zudio store additions.
In the December quarter, Trent's fashion portfolio registered high single digit like-for-like growth. This is the most important metric in the retail industry, and compares sales between the same stores over time. The beauty and personal care, innerwear and footwear portfolio, which accounted for 20% of total sales, also continued to gain traction with customers. New stores also contributed to the revenue growth.
Motilal Oswal said it expects revenue growth to moderate to 28% on year in Jan-Mar due to further moderation in same-store sales growth.
Trent is expected to report an earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation, or EBITDA, of INR 6.7 billion in Jan-Mar, according to the average of estimates of six brokerages. Motilal Oswal expects the EBITDA to be the lowest at INR 5.9 billion and Equirus Securities expects it to be highest at INR 7.9 billion.
The EBITDA margin is expected to dip by 50 basis points on year to 14.5% in Jan-Mar led by operating deleverage, Motilal Oswal said. Nuvama pegged the EBITDA margin decline to be lower at 14.9%, as against 15.0% in the year-ago period. Kotak said it expects the gross margin to decline 30 bps sequentially and 90 bps on year on account of a higher mix of revenues from Zudio stores.
At 1423 IST, shares of Trent traded 2.8% down at INR 5,174.5 on the National Stock Exchange.
Following are the March quarter earnings estimates for Trent Ltd. based on reports from seven brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit:
| Broker Name | Net Sales (in INR million) | Net Profit (in INR million) | EBITDA (in INR million) |
| Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd. | 42,740.00 | 4,625.00 | 7,864.00 |
| Morgan Stanley | 44,297.00 | 3,835.00 | 6,668.00 |
| Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. | 44,415.00 | 3,543.00 | 6,675.00 |
| Kotak Institutional Equities | 43,408.00 | 3,304.00 | 6,685.00 |
| Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. | 43,059.00 | 3,067.00 | 6,395.00 |
| Sharekhan Ltd. | 40,790.00 | 2,720.00 | |
| Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. | 40,863.00 | 2,677.00 | 5,916.00 |
| Average | 42,796.00 | 3,395.86 | 6,700.50 |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Tanima Banerjee
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.
To read more please subscribe
Share this Story:
