Earnings Outlook
Volume growth to drive TVS Motor's Jan-Mar PAT
This story was originally published at 20:24 IST on 24 April 2025
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By Narayana Krishna
HYDERABAD - Robust volume growth and a better mix of models, coupled with price hikes, are likely to boost TVS Motor Co Ltd.'s earnings for the March quarter, according to analysts. With nearly 15% growth in volumes for the quarter, the Chennai-based two-wheeler company is expected to outperform its peers in earnings for one more quarter, analysts said.
According to the average of the estimates of 13 brokerage houses, TVS Motor is projected to report a 52% year-on-year rise in its Jan–Mar standalone net profit at INR 7.4 billion. Analysts' estimates for TVS Motor's Jan–Mar net profit range from INR 6.42 billion, the lowest by HDFC Securities Ltd., to INR 9.22 billion, the highest by Nomura Equity Research.
On the revenue front, TVS Motor is expected to report a 14% year-on-year rise to INR 93.5 billion for the quarter. Estimates for revenue range from INR 90.99 billion by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. to INR 96.77 billion by Nomura.
The company is scheduled to announce its Jan–Mar earnings on Monday.
Most analysts are bullish on TVS Motor's year-on-year performance, led by the scooter segment. Emkay Global, in its pre-earnings note, said a positive model mix within motorcycles is likely to help TVS Motor report healthy year-on-year growth.
Sequentially, the company may see single-digit revenue growth, as volumes are flat on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The company's net profit on a sequential basis is seen up 20%, and revenue growth at 3%, the estimates show.
Though TVS Motor has maintained its market share in the electric two-wheeler segment with its flagship model iQube, contribution to margins from this model remains weak, analysts said.
EYES ON PLI
Analysts are keenly waiting to hear from TVS Motor's management on its expected benefits from the production-linked incentive scheme announced by the Centre for the automobile sector. Most analysts have not factored in any specific number on the amount of total incentive and are waiting for clarity from the company.
However, Nomura projected that the company may get INR 3.9 billion for the full year (2024–25) under the scheme, and the same may be accounted for in the revenue for Jan–Mar, which will aid margins.
Excluding this benefit, Nomura projected TVS Motor's March quarter earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation margin at 11.9%, flat on quarter. HSBC Global Research expects the EBITDA margin at 13.2%, as the company will start realising PLI benefits during the quarter. ICICI Securities said PLI benefits might have a 100-basis-point impact on the company's EBITDA margin. The average of estimates from 11 brokerages available for TVS Motor's March quarter EBITDA is INR 11.99 billion.
Besides commentary on PLI benefits, market participants are keen to hear the company's comments on its FY26 outlook on electric two-wheeler growth and ramping up of exports to new geographies.
On Thursday, shares of TVS Motor ended at INR 2,773.90 on the National Stock Exchange, down 1.2% from the previous close. TVS Motor has gained nearly 14% in the past 30 days and 17% so far in 2025.
Following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates for TVS Motor Co Ltd. based on reports from 13 brokerage firms in descending order by the estimate of net profit:
Brokerage firm | Net sales | Net profit | EBITDA |
| --in million rupees-- | ||
Nomura Equity Research | 96,773.00 | 9,227.00 | 14,934.00 |
Kotak Institutional Equities | 93,296.00 | 7,979.00 | 12,215.00 |
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd | 94,062.00 | 7,740.00 | 12,480.00 |
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd | 93,278.00 | 7,652.00 | -- |
HSBC Global Research | 93,709.00 | 7,642.00 | 12,381.00 |
ICICI Securities Ltd | 94,035.00 | 7,478.00 | 12,319.00 |
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd | 93,578.00 | 7,388.00 | 11,697.00 |
Axis Securities Ltd | 93,510.00 | 7,160.00 | 11,320.00 |
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd | 95,534.00 | 7,128.00 | 11,385.00 |
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd | 92,205.00 | 6,874.00 | 11,249.00 |
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd | 92,022.00 | 6,753.00 | 11,044.00 |
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd | 90,998.00 | 6,677.00 | 10,836.00 |
HDFC Securities Ltd | 92,665.00 | 6,428.00 | -- |
Average | 93,512.69 | 7,394.31 | 11,987.27 |
End
Edited by Avishek Dutta
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