More Stories

Informist, Monday, Apr. 21, 2025

MUMBAI – The El Nino–Southern Oscillation continues to be in the 'neutral' category, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly report on Tuesday. It said neither El Nino nor La Nina are likely until at least September, which aligns with the predictions of the other international models it reviewed.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation stood at (-) 0.31 degrees Celsius as of Apr. 13, suggesting neutral conditions. For La Nina to emerge, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific should meet or fall below the threshold of (-) 0.8 degrees Celsius, and for El Nino, temperatures should meet or rise above 0.5 degrees Celsius.

However, it is important to note that the El Nino–Southern Oscillation usually enters a "spring predictability barrier" after winter, the bureau said. During this period, the model's forecasts are intrinsically more uncertain, or less skillful, in connection with Northern Hemisphere spring. While the reasons for this barrier are still unknown, historically, the model's predictability becomes better by May.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is seen neutral at least till August, with the value at 0.11 degrees Celsius as of Apr. 13. The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in sea surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India and vice versa. For monitoring the index, the bureau considers sustained values above 0.4 degrees Celsius as typical of a positive index, and values below (−) 0.4 degrees Celsius as typical of a negative index.

According to the bureau, global sea surface temperatures remained above average, and in Australia, they were the second warmest on record in March since 1900. 

On Tuesday, the India Meteorological Department forecast above-normal southwest monsoon rainfall in the country this year as neutral El Nino conditions will prevail throughout the period. The weather bureau said overall rainfall during Jun-Sept is likely to be 105% of the long-period average with a model error of plus or minus 5%. The weather bureau said favourable La Nina conditions are likely to develop after the monsoon.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.