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Informist, Thursday, Apr. 17, 2025

MUMBAI – Benchmark indices will likely extend their rally to next week as worries about US tariffs have eased, analysts said. Overall trend in the market is seen positive from here, unless there are any negative surprises over the long weekend, analysts said. Domestic markets are shut on Friday for Good Friday.

"It is difficult to say what direction the market will take Monday, but it is seen higher if no negative surprises come in during the long weekend," Ajit Mishra, senior vice president – technical research at Religare Broking, said. As the Nifty 50 has passed its crucial resistance of 23800 points, the index is expected to rise more, he said. He expects Nifty 50 to find support at 23300 points and face resistance at 24500 points.

The market has already factored in the March quarter earnings, some analysts said. The June quarter is extremely important as investors will look at what impact the interest rate cuts, improved liquidity in the banking system, and the US tariff shocks have had on companies, analysts said. However, there are also worries about slowdown of the domestic economy even though India is not an export-driven country, analysts said. Last week, the Reserve Bank of India cut its GDP growth forecast for 2025-26 (Apr-Jun) to 6.5% from 6.7%.

Fitch Ratings on Wednesday lowered India's GDP growth forecast for FY26 by 10 basis points to 6.4% because of an escalation in the global trade war after the US imposed tariffs on its trading partners. Fitch retained the FY27 GDP growth estimate for India at 6.3%. Similar, Morgan Stanley also cut its forecast for India's GDP growth in FY26 by 40 basis points to 6.1%, and sees the economy growing at only a slightly faster pace of 6.3% in FY27.

On Thursday, the Nifty 50 ended 1.8% higher at 23851.65 points and the BSE Sensex rose almost 2% to close at 78553.20 points. Banking and financial services stocks led the gains in the Nifty 50. The index saw sharp rises in the day due to fresh build-up of long positions and covering of short positions by investors, analysts said. 

If the Nifty 50 stays above 23800 points, it could pave the way for a rally towards 24800 points, Ashish Sherigar, technical analyst at NVS Brokerage, said. He expects the 50-stock index to cross 24000 points next week. Sherigar believes worries about the US tariffs have eased for now, mainly due to the 90-day pause and hopes of trade deals by the US with most of its trading partners. He expects Nifty 50 to find support at 22800–22600 points and resistance at 24200-24500 points.

Investors will react to the March quarter earnings of a slew of companies. After market hours on Thursday, HDFC Life Insurance Co. reported results that showed both its bottom line and top line rose around 16% on year. Infosys also reported its earnings for the last quarter of FY25. Its net profit was better than expected at INR 70.33 billion. The company guided for revenue growth of 0-3% in constant currency terms and operating margin of 20-22% for FY26. Jio Financial Services reported a nearly 24% on-year rise in total income and 1.8% rise in net profit.

On Saturday, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank will report their earnings. Analysts expect HDFC Bank's bottom line to grow 4% on year to INR 171.07 billion and revenue to rise 8% to INR 313.47 billion. ICICI Bank's net profit for the March quarter is expected to rise nearly 10% to INR 117.91 billion, and the top line is expected to grow 9% to INR 208.44 billion.  End

Edited by Ashish Shirke

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