Earnings Outlook
Steady loan growth, NIMs to lift ICICI Bk's Jan-Mar PAT 10%
This story was originally published at 19:59 IST on 18 April 2025
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By Kshipra Petkar
MUMBAI – A steady growth in loans and deposits along with stable margins will lift ICICI Bank Ltd.'s net profit by 10% on year in Jan-Mar, according to brokerage reports. "Yet another steady quarter, with steady loan growth and deposit growth," Elara Securities said in its pre-earnings report. "Expect broadly steady NIM (net interest margin), largely benefitting from CRR cut impact and lower slippages QoQ (quarter on quarter)."
The net profit of the country's second largest private sector lender is seen rising 10.1% on year to INR 117.91 billion, according to the average of estimates by 16 brokerages. Sequentially, the bottom line is expected to remain largely flat.
The range for net profit is INR 107.1 billion-INR 121.9 billion. The loan growth is seen at 14-15% on year and deposit growth is seen at 10-12%, as per estimates given by several brokerage firms. The total advances of the bank rose 13.9% on year to INR 13.14 trillion and total deposits were up 14.1% on year to INR 15.2 trillion, according to operational data released by the bank.
The net interest income of the bank is seen rising 9.2% on year to INR 208.44 billion for the quarter ended March, according to the average of estimates by 16 brokerage reports. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the net interest income is seen rising 2.3%.
"NII (net interest income) growth will be slightly slower than average loan growth due to fall in yield on advances outpacing cost of deposits which will be partially offset by lower interest reversals on KCC (Kissan credit card) loans," YES Securities said in its report.
Net interest margins are expected to remain stable, but may moderate slightly due to the repo rate cut of 25 basis points by the Reserve Bank of India in April. On the other hand, Motilal Oswal expects the net interest margins to see an improvement in Jan-Mar.
The provisions are expected to be higher as the base quarter had negligible provisions, Kotak Institutional Equities said. In the previous quarter, the bank's provisions stood at INR 12.3 billion.
On the bank's asset quality, analysts are expecting an improvement in the gross and net non-performing asset ratios as on Mar. 31. The gross NPA ratio of the bank stood at 1.96% as on Dec. 31, and the net NPA ratio stood at 0.42%.
"We are building slippages of nearly 2% (around INR 66 billion). We don't expect any negative commentary on asset quality," Kotak Institutional Equities said.
The company will announce its results for the latest quarter on Saturday. Shares of the bank closed 3.7% higher at INR 1,406.70 on the National Stock Exchange on Thursday.
Following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates for ICICI Bank based on reports from 16 brokerage firms in descending order of the estimate of net profit:
Brokerage Name | Net Interest Income (in INR million) | Net Profit (in INR million) |
PhillipCapital (India) | 2,08,580.00 | 1,21,939.00 |
IIFL Capital Services | 2,11,700.00 | 1,21,400.00 |
Nomura Equity Research | 2,11,700.00 | 1,21,000.00 |
Emkay Global Financial Services | 2,10,741.00 | 1,20,902.00 |
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers | 2,09,547.00 | 1,20,765.00 |
YES Securities (India) | 2,09,772.00 | 1,20,624.00 |
Motilal Oswal Financial Services | 2,08,537.00 | 1,20,264.00 |
Prabhudas Lilladher | 2,10,312.00 | 1,20,264.00 |
Equirus Securities | 2,07,153.00 | 1,19,597.00 |
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd | 2,05,434.00 | 1,19,590.00 |
Elara Securities (India) | 2,09,025.00 | 1,18,221.00 |
Kotak Institutional Equities | 2,05,183.00 | 1,15,139.00 |
IDBI Capital Market Services | 2,08,781.00 | 1,14,822.00 |
Dolat Capital Market | 2,05,631.00 | 1,14,266.00 |
Nirmal Bang Equities | 2,05,785.00 | 1,10,728.00 |
Sharekhan | 2,07,160.00 | 1,07,080.00 |
Average | 2,08,440.06 | 1,17,912.56 |
End
Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj
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