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Informist, Thursday, Apr. 17, 2025

 

--Fitch cuts India FY25 GDP growth forecast by 10 bps to 6.2% 

--Fitch cuts India FY26 GDP growth forecast by 10 bps to 6.4% 

--Fitch pegs India FY27 GDP growth forecast at 6.3% 

 

NEW DELHI – Fitch Ratings Wednesday lowered India's GDP growth forecast for 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) by 10 basis points to 6.4?cause of an escalation in global trade war after the US imposed tariffs on its trading partners. Fitch retained the FY27 GDP growth estimate for India at 6.3%.

 

The rating agency also lowered the GDP growth forecast for FY25 by 10 bps to 6.2%. The Indian government's second advance estimate pegs FY25 GDP growth at 6.5%. The provisional data for FY25 GDP growth will be released at the end of May. 

 

"Fitch Ratings' forecasts for world growth have been sharply lowered in response to the recent severe escalation in the global trade war," the rating agency said in the April update to its Global Economic Outlook report.

 

Fitch is the latest in a long line of professional forecasters who have downgraded India's growth projections for the ongoing fiscal. Last week, the Reserve Bank of India had lowered its FY26 GDP growth forecast by 20 basis points to 6.5% citing the impact of global trade and policy uncertainties.

 

Earlier this week, Moody's Ratings said that India's economy may grow 5.5-6.5% in 2025, compared to 6.6% previously projected, under a scenario of 10% universal tariffs and 145% on China by the US. The US has since raised the tariffs on China to 245%. India was to face a 26% reciprocal tariff from the US before Washington on Apr. 9 announced a 90-day pause on these duties.

 

Fitch projected that India's GDP growth will rise to 6.8% in Jan-Mar from 6.2% in the previous quarter. At 6.8%, GDP growth in Jan-Mar would be at a four-quarter high but still well below the 7.6% implied by the government's second advance estimate. The data for Jan-Mar growth will also be published at the end of May. The rating agency projected Apr-Jun, Jul-Sept, and Oct-Dec growth at 6.5%, 7.1%, and 6.2%, respectively.  End

 

Reported by Shubham Rana

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

 

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