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Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 16, 2025

NEW DELHI – India's merchandise exports to the US jumped in March in the run-up to the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by President Donald Trump, data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on Tuesday showed. India's merchandise exports to the US in March rose 35.1% on year to $10.15 billion, the data showed.

Trump had earlier said he would announce reciprocal tariffs on Washington's trading partners, including India, on Apr. 2. Though Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on 76 countries, including India, they were subsequently paused for 90 days for all countries except China. China now faces a 245% duty on exports to the US. The reciprocal tariff on India was to be 26%. 

Despite the jump in exports to the US, the overall exports from India in March grew a paltry 0.7% on year to $41.97 billion, suggesting that exporters increased shipments to the US before tariffs kicked in. 

Media reports said Apple chartered cargo flights to ship 600 tonnes of iPhones, or as many as 1.5 million devices, to the US in March before the new tariffs kicked in to circumvent reciprocal tariffs.

India's exports to the US had risen 10.4% on year to $7.91 billion in February. In the year ended March, India exported goods worth $86.51 billion to the US, up 11.6% on year. 

"Going ahead, US tariff-related uncertainty is likely to weigh on exports," said Aditi Gupta, an economist at Bank of Baroda. "With the government working at a brisk pace to finalise the free trade agreement with the US by the end of the year, any shock to India's exports to the US is likely to be only transitory," Gupta said.

Economists said that India's GDP growth could be adversely affected by the direct and indirect impact of US tariffs. Earlier this week, Morgan Stanley lowered its growth forecast for India in FY26 by 40 basis points to 6.1% in light of the direct and indirect risks to activity from the uncertainty and global slowdown being caused by the volatile trade policies of the US.

While the direct impact of US tariffs on India may be limited, a fallout of the huge tariffs Beijing is facing in the US could be increased imports of cheaper goods, economists said. Data showed that India's imports from China picked up last month. Imports from China rose 25.0% on year to $9.68 billion in March, the data showed. Imports of goods from China had risen 7.8% on year to $8.72 billion in February.  End

US$1 = INR 85.68

Reported by Shubham Rana

Edited by Saji George Titus

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