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Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 16, 2025

MUMBAI – Neither El Nino nor La Nina conditions are expected in May-Oct, as suggested by the APEC Climate Center's El Nino-Southern Oscillation alert, which continues to be in 'inactive' mode. Currently, there is an 80% chance of neutral conditions, which is seen decreasing to about 50% as the forecast period progresses, the Center said in its monthly outlook released Tuesday. 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions generally mean near-average rainfall conditions for India, with the monsoon performing close to its historical average. La Nina is usually associated with good rainfall over India, while El Nino is associated with a drier climate and drought conditions.

Under the influence of the above weather phenomenon, the Center predicts above normal precipitation over the Bay of Bengal, India, central tropical North Pacific, Western Pacific, and central to eastern Africa regions during May-Jul. In Aug-Oct, there is a strong tendency for above normal rainfall over the Arctic, Sagel, and western Pacific, while some tendency for above normal rainfall is seen over Alaska, Greenland, eastern Russia, India, and southeastern Australia, it said.

On Tuesday, the India Meteorological Department forecast above normal southwest monsoon rainfall in the country this year as neutral El Nino conditions will prevail throughout the period. The weather bureau said overall rainfall during Jun-Sept is likely to be 105% of the long-period average with a model error of plus or minus 5%. According to the weather bureau's forecasts for the season, there is 59% chance of above-normal monsoon rains, and 30% chance of normal showers.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is expected to be near zero in May, with a slight increase to 0.1 degrees Celsius by October, the APAC Climate Center said. For La Nina to emerge, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific should meet or fall below the threshold of (-)0.8 degrees Celsius, and for El Nino, temperatures should meet or rise above 0.5 degrees Celsius. 

Sea surface temperature anomalies are likely to be near normal along the equator in May-Jul, with no significant change seen for the rest of the forecast period. A negative anomaly refers to cooler-than-average temperatures on the ocean's surface, while a positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value.

The Center predicts above normal temperatures in May-Jul over most of the Pacific, North Atlantic, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, northern Africa, the US, Mexico, Caribbean, western coast of northern South America, eastern South America, and Eurasia except central to northern Russia and India. In Aug-Oct, above normal temperatures are expected over some parts of the Arctic, most parts of the Pacific, North Atlantic, Bay of Bengal, central to eastern Indian Ocean, east Asia, Southeast Asia, central Asia, West Asia, Europe, Africa, the US, Canada, Mexico, and eastern and northern regions of South America, it said.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

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