Data Alert
Mar CPI inflation at 67-month low of 3.34% on lower food prices
This story was originally published at 17:21 IST on 15 April 2025
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--India Mar CPI inflation 3.34% vs 3.61% Feb
--Informist poll estimated India Mar CPI inflation at 3.6%
--India Mar CPI food inflation 2.69% vs 3.75% Feb
--India Mar CPI rural inflation 3.25% vs 3.79% Feb
--India Mar CPI urban inflation 3.43% vs 3.32% Feb
--India Mar CPI general index down 0.3% on month
--India Mar CPI food price index down 0.9% on month
--India Mar CPI cereals and products index up 0.1% on month
--India Mar CPI vegetable index down 5.7% on month
--India Mar CPI pulses and products index down 2.9% on month
--India Mar CPI oils and fats index up 0.5% on month
--India Mar CPI food, beverage index down 0.7% on month
--India Mar CPI housing index down 0.1% on month
--India Mar CPI clothing, footwear index up 0.1% on month
--India Mar CPI fuel and light index up 0.1% on month
--India Mar CPI miscellaneous index up 0.4% on month
--India Mar CPI core inflation 4.1% vs 4.0% Feb
--India Jan-Mar CPI average 3.7%, FY25 at 4.6%
NEW DELHI – India's headline CPI inflation fell to an over-five-year low in March as food inflation continued to decline even as core inflation inched up last month. According to data released by the statistics ministry on Tuesday, CPI inflation fell to a 67-month low of 3.34% in March from 3.61% in February. The last time inflation was lower than this was in August 2019.
At 3.34%, retail inflation in March is well below the consensus estimates. According to an Informist poll, the headline inflation was seen at 3.6% in March. This is the second consecutive month that CPI inflation has stayed below the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4%.
With this, CPI inflation has averaged 3.7% in Jan-Mar, 70 basis points lower than the Reserve Bank of India's forecast of 4.4% in February. In 2024-25 (Apr-Mar), CPI inflation averaged 4.6%, 20 bps lower than the central bank's projection of 4.8% in February.
Food inflation fell to a 40-month low of 2.69%, pulled down by a 22-month low vegetable inflation of (-)7.04%. On a sequential basis, the CPI food price index fell 0.9% in March, while the overall index declined 0.3% from February. Vegetable prices declined 5.7% on month in March. Along with vegetables, pulses prices fell 2.9% from February. Pulses inflation declined to (-)2.73% in March, the lowest since February 2019.
Core inflation--which excludes volatile food and fuel items--rose to a 16-month high of 4.1% in March from 4.0% in February. The previous highest core inflation was 4.1% in November 2023. The last time core inflation was higher than 4.1% was in October 2023, when it was 4.3%.
Three of the four sub-components of core inflation rose on month in March. Miscellaneous index rose 0.4% on month in March, pan and tobacco was up 0.3%, and clothing and footwear increased 0.1% from February. The housing index fell 0.1% on month in March.
"The larger-than-expected fall in Indian consumer price inflation in March, which pushes it further below the RBI's 4% target, reinforces our view that the central bank will loosen monetary policy by a bit more than the consensus expects over the coming months," said Joe Maher, assistant economist at Capital Economics.
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee last week lowered the repo rate by 25 bps to 6.00% and changed the stance to accommodative from neutral in a bid to support economic growth as the inflation has remained benign.
The following table details sequential and annual changes in the main components of the CPI (Combined):
| Weight | Index for March | Month-on-month change (in %) | Year-on-year change (in %) | ||
| March | February | ||||
| Cereals and products | 9.67 | 200.2 | 0.1% | 5.93% | 6.10% |
| Meat and fish | 3.61 | 221.7 | (-)0.4% | 0.32% | 2.11% |
| Egg | 0.43 | 187.2 | (-)4.9% | (-)3.16% | (-)2.96% |
| Milk and products | 6.61 | 188.0 | 0.1% | 2.56% | 2.68% |
| Oils and fats | 3.56 | 185.2 | 0.5% | 17.07% | 16.36% |
| Vegetables | 6.04 | 182.3 | (-)5.7% | (-)7.04% | (-)1.13% |
| Pulses and products | 2.38 | 196.0 | (-)2.9% | (-)2.73% | (-)0.35% |
| Sugar and confectionery | 1.36 | 133.7 | 1.1% | 3.89% | 2.16% |
| Spices | 2.5 | 222.1 | (-)0.8% | (-)4.92% | (-)5.85% |
| Food and beverages | 45.86 | 196.2 | (-)0.7% | 2.88% | 3.84% |
| Pan, tobacco and intoxicants | 2.38 | 210.8 | 0.3% | 2.48% | 2.44% |
| Clothing and footwear | 6.53 | 195.6 | 0.1% | 2.62% | 2.68% |
| Housing | 10.07 | 183.6 | (-)0.1% | 3.03% | 2.91% |
| Fuel and light | 6.84 | 178.4 | 0.1% | 1.48% | (-)1.33% |
| Miscellaneous | 28.32 | 189.2 | 0.4% | 4.99% | 4.84% |
| General Index | 100 | 192.0 | (-)0.3% | 3.34% | 3.61% |
| Consumer Food Price Index | 39.06 | 194.9 | (-)0.9% | 2.69% | 3.75% |
End
Reported by Shubham Rana
Edited by Saji George Titus
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