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Informist, Tuesday, Apr. 15, 2025

MUMBAI – The India Meteorological Department has forecast above normal southwest monsoon rainfall this year as neutral El Nino conditions will prevail throughout the period. The weather bureau Tuesday said overall rainfall during Jun-Sept is likely to be 105% of the long-period average with a model error of plus or minus 5%.

According to the weather bureau's forecasts for the season, there is 59% chance of above-normal monsoon rains, and 30% chance of normal showers. There is also 9% chance of below normal precipitation. "Winter and spring snow cover extent over the Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia has a generally inverse relationship with the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall," the department said. The snow cover in Northern Hemisphere areas during Jan-Mar was below normal, it said.

The weather department said above normal rainfall during Jun-Sept is most likely over most parts of the country, except some parts of northwest, northeast, and southern peninsular India, where below normal showers are expected. Since a decade or so, northeast India has been receiving below normal southwest monsoon, Dr. M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, told the media Tuesday.

The weather bureau said favourable La Nina conditions are likely to develop after the monsoon. Currently, it sees neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier, hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are present over the Indian Ocean and the latest climate models forecast that these are likely to persist during the southwest monsoon. The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive dipole results in better rainfall.

On Wednesday, private weather forecaster Skymet had predicted a 'normal' southwest monsoon for India at 103% of the long-period average, with a model error of plus or minus 5%. The season is likely to begin with relatively less rain as the forecaster predicts rainfall in June at 96% of the long-period average. However, the forecaster expects rains to increase from July, with rainfall during the month seen at 102%, in August at 108%, and in September at 104%.

In 2024, the India Meteorological Department had projected monsoon rainfall to be above normal at 106% of the long period average with a model error of plus or minus 5%. Actual rainfall over the country was 8% above normal at 934.8 mm. The updated forecast for the monsoon season will be released in the last week of May, the weather agency said.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty and J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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