Oil Report
OPEC cuts oil demand growth view for 2025, 2026 on trade tariffs by US
This story was originally published at 10:55 IST on 15 April 2025
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MUMBAI – The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has cut its estimate for growth in global crude oil demand in 2025 and 2026 due to the recently announced tariffs on trade by the US and data received for the first quarter, the cartel said in its April Oil Market Report on Monday.
The cartel sees global oil demand growing by 1.3 million barrels per day to 105.05 million barrels per day, while in March it had expected a yearly growth of 1.4 million barrels per day. Similarly, OPEC has trimmed its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 1.3 million barrels per day from 1.4 million barrels per day in March because of the expected impact of new trade tariffs announced by the US.
OPEC has cut its forecast for crude oil demand from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in 2025 by 60,000 barrel per day from 100,000 barrel per day expected the previous month. It now expects crude oil demand from these countries to grow by 40,000 barrels per day to 45.74 million barrels per day in 2025, supported by demand from Asia Pacific for crude oil from Americas.
For non-OECD, the demand growth forecast was cut by 90,000 barrels per day from the previous month and is now estimated to grow by close to 1.25 million barrels per day, driven by China, India, and other Asian countries, with further support from West Asia and Latin America.
India's oil demand in 2025 is seen at 5.76 million barrels per day, down from 5.79 million barrels per day in March but up from 5.55 million barrels per day in 2024, OPEC said. In 2026, the country is expected to consume 6.01 million barrels per day of oil, up 4.3% from 2025.
On Apr. 2, US President Donald Trump had announced the imposition of reciprocal tariffs on imports to the US from other countries. It slapped 34% tariff on China, 46% on Vietnam, 32% on Taiwan, and 26% tariffs on India. Later, China retaliated to the US tariffs, and trade tensions intensified.
Following these developments, crude oil prices on NYMEX continued to fall in April after closing in the red for February and March. At 1033 IST, the most-active June crude oil contract on NYMEX was 0.3% higher at $61.27.
US trade tariffs also raised concern about global economic growth. In the report, OPEC lowered its world economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.0% from 3.1% and reduced the estimate for next year to 3.1% from 3.2%. "The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year, however, recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty to the short-term global economic growth outlook," OPEC said in the report.
Meanwhile, crude oil production in March by countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation--OPEC and allies--fell by 37,000 barrels per day to 41.02 million barrels per day, according to secondary sources.
Supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation is estimated to expand by 900,000 barrels per day in 2025 to an average of 54.1 million barrels per day, down from the last month's assessment of 1.0 million barrels per day. Non-DoC liquids supply growth in 2026 is forecast to grow by 900,000 barrels per day to 55.0 million barrels per day.
In 2025, OECD supply is expected to increase by 600,000 barrels per day to an average of 32.3 million barrels per day and in 2026, OECD production is forecast to expand by 400,000 barrels per day to average 32.7 million barrels per day.
Kazakhstan's oil output in March is seen at 1.85 million barrels per day, up 37,000 barrels per day from the previous month. Iraq's oil output during the month is seen at 3.98 million barrels per day, down 34,000 barrels per day, the report said, citing secondary sources. Nigeria's oil output in March fell by 25,000 barrels per day to 1.52 million barrels per day.
According to secondary sources, total crude oil production by OPEC in March averaged 26.78 million barrels per day, 78,000 barrels per day lower than the previous month.
In February, crude oil commercial stocks with OECD countries fell by 16.1 million barrels per day to 2.75 billion barrels, according to the report. Stocks were 71 million barrels below the latest five-year average and 173.5 million barrels below the 2015-2019 average. End
US$1 = INR 85.69
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Reported by J. Navya Sruthi
Edited by Avishek Dutta
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