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Informist, Friday, Apr. 11, 2025

MUMBAI – Commerzbank has revised downward its yearly price forecasts for crude oil, base metals, and silver as global trade tensions cloud the demand outlook for these commodities. However, the German bank has revised upwards its yearly price forecast for gold, as it expects prices of the precious metal to be well-supported due to the continuing high level of uncertainty.

The bank expects Brent crude oil to trade at $65 per barrel by the end of this year, against its previous projection of $75 per barrel. "We then anticipate a slight price recovery in the coming year. Not only should demand stabilise, but the expansion of oil production outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, particularly in the US, should also slow down," Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, said in the report.

The German bank sees gold prices at $3,000 per troy ounce by the end of the year, against its previous forecast of $2,850 per troy ounce. "We consider the price to be well-supported due to the continuing high level of uncertainty and have revised our gold price forecast upwards," Lambrecht said. The bank has revised downward its price forecast for silver to $34 per troy ounce by the end of 2025, against $35 per troy ounce predicted earlier.

Prices of base metals have recovered some of the earlier losses after the announcement of a 90-day pause of most reciprocal tariffs by the US. However, further recovery potential is limited as companies and consumers are likely to remain cautious for the time being due to lack of clarity on what will happen to the tariffs in the next 90 days.

The bank sees copper at $9,400 per tonne by the end of the year, against its previous estimate of $9,700 per tonne. The price of aluminium is seen around $2,600 per tonne by the end of 2025, it said. The bank had previously forecast aluminium prices to trade at $2,800 per tonne by the end of the year.

"We have revised our price forecast for a ton of zinc downwards to $2,600 by the end of the year also because there are increasing signs of a recovery in production on the zinc market," Lambrecht said.  End

US$1 = INR 86.04

Reported by Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Nishant Maher

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