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Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 9, 2025

MUMBAI - Following are the highlights of the Reserve Bank of India's six-monthly monetary policy report, which was released after the first bi-monthly meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee for 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) on Wednesday:

* GDP, CPI forecasts assume $70/bbl as India's crude oil basket price

* FY27 CPI inflation seen at 4.3% as per structural model estimates

* FY27 GDP growth seen at 6.7% as per structural model estimates

* Jan-Mar 2027 CPI inflation seen at 4.3% as per structural model estimates

* FY27 quarterly GDP growth rates seen in 6.4-6.8% range as per model

* GDP, CPI forecasts assume 86/$1 as rupee's exchange rate in FY26

* GDP, CPI forecasts assume 3.1% global growth in 2025, 3.0% in 2026

* Forecasts assume India FY26 general govt fisc gap within 7.1% of GDP

* Forecasts assume no major change in India's macro, structural policies

* Global growth 100 bps under baseline could hit India growth by 30 bps

* Global growth 100 bps under baseline could lower India CPI by 15 bps

* Global growth 50 bps above baseline could raise India growth by 15 bps

* Global growth 50 bps above baseline could raise India CPI by 7 bps

* Crude oil price 10% below baseline could lower India CPI by 30 bps

* Crude oil price 10% below baseline could boost India growth by 15 bps

* Crude oil price 10% above baseline could raise India CPI by 30 bps

* Crude oil price 10% above baseline could hurt India growth by 15 bps

* Rupee 5% weaker than baseline could push up CPI inflation by 35 bps

* Rupee 5% weaker than baseline could boost GDP growth by 25 bps

* Rupee 5% stronger than baseline could lower CPI inflation by 35 bps

* Rupee 5% stronger than baseline could lower GDP growth by 25 bps

* US tariffs impact on India inflation outlook uncertain at the moment

* US tariffs likely to adversely impact India's net external demand

* India's relative tariff advantage over peers may contain US tariff hit

* Escalating trade tensions impart uncertainty to India growth outlook

End

Compiled by Vinod Bhovad

Filed by Vandana Hingorani 

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