Informist Poll
IIP growth in Feb likely fell to 3.8% from 5.0% in Jan
This story was originally published at 17:32 IST on 8 April 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Tuesday, Apr. 8, 2025
By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI – Growth in India's industrial output is likely to have moderated to 3.8% in February from 5.0% in January, according to the median of estimates by 10 economists polled by Informist. Industrial growth, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production, was 5.6% in February 2024.
The statistics ministry will release IIP data for February at 1600 IST on Friday. However, the data for March will be released later this month on Apr. 28, with the ministry advancing its publication by two weeks. As such, the lag will reduce to four weeks from six weeks at present.
In February, industrial output is likely to have declined on a month-on-month basis due to fewer working days in the month. A 3.8% year-on-year growth in the general index of the IIP in February suggests a 5.3?ll from January, which would be the worst sequential performance in 10 months.
Indications of a fall in the year-on-year industrial growth rate were also visible in the output of the eight core industries, which accounts for over 40% of the total weight of the IIP. As per data released on Mar. 28, core sector growth in February fell to a five-month low of 2.9% from 5.1% in January.
Other high-frequency indicators also point to a slowdown in factory output. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, for instance, fell to a 14-month low of 56.3 in February, while the number of e-way bills generated increased only 14.7% year-on-year--the slowest growth rate in six months. Growth in vehicle production also slowed to 2.2% in February from 9.3% in January.
The following is the summary of the poll on IIP growth in February:
|
ORGANISATION |
IIP GROWTH ESTIMATE |
|
Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities |
2.2% |
|
ICRA |
3.0% |
|
India Ratings and Research |
3.0% |
|
Acuite Ratings and Research |
3.6% |
|
CareEdge Ratings |
3.8% |
|
ICICI Securities Primary Dealership |
3.8% |
|
Kotak Mahindra Bank |
3.9% |
|
Sunidhi Securities |
4.35% |
|
HDFC Bank |
4.8% |
|
STCI Primary Dealer |
5.35% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Avishek Dutta
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