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Informist, Monday, Apr. 7, 2025

 

By Gopika Balasubramanium

 

MUMBAI – Domestic benchmark equity indices fell around 5% intra-day to hit their 10-month lows and closed lower for the third session in a row Monday on heightened worries about an economic recession in the US. Analysts said this "unexpected" sharp fall of the market shows worries about a likely slowdown in the US economy after China retaliated with a 34% tariff on all US goods imported to the country.

 

Goldman Sachs Monday raised the odds of a recession in the US in the next 12 months to 45% from 35% amid fears of a global trade war. Another investment bank JP Morgan had earlier raised its odds for a recession in the US to 60%.

 

Indian equities, however, fared better than most of their US, Asian, and European peers which were down 4-13%. Analysts said the comparatively 'better' performance was because the Indian economy is less dependent on revenues from US exports and also because the market is hopeful about a trade deal between the US and India that would likely bring down the current tariff rates. On Thursday, US President Donald Trump slapped Indian goods entering the US with a 26% duty.

 

The Nifty 50 ended at 22161.60 points, down 3.2%, and the BSE Sensex had closed at 73137.90 points, down 3.0%. Both indices rose from their 10-month intra-day lows of 21743.65 points and 71425.01 points. Though the 50-stock index managed to recover above the psychologically important level of 22000 points, it broke the support of 22750 polled by Informist for April. India VIX, the gauge that measured the market volatility, rose a whopping 66% to 22.7925 Monday, marking its highest-ever single-day rise. This indicates rising nervousness in the domestic market, but analysts are hopeful that the long-term growth of India remains strong.

 

Trump's sole purpose of imposing tariffs is to bring back manufacturing to the US and he is not looking at the disadvantages the measures are causing to the global economy, the head of research of a domestic brokerage said. Trump will dilute the trade policies only if they adversely affect his electorate, he said.

 

On the domestic market front, the research head said the market will see some strength only when there are clear signs of improvement in corporate earnings. After two years of strong returns on equity markets, the growth is likely to be muted in the market and it is a cyclical phenomenon, he said. The March quarter will not be as great as expected, and if the tariff situation is not resolved, it can impact earnings and stock prices in the coming quarters, he said. Till then, any negative shocks from global markets could lead to volatility in domestic equities, he said.      

 

Banking and financial services sectors dragged down the Nifty 50 the most, contributing 271 points or 1.2% of the fall in the benchmark index. Fall in index heavyweights such as HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Reliance Industries dragged down the Nifty 50 by nearly 1%. Trent, which fell over 19% intra-day, was the worst-hit in the Nifty 50. The stock ended 15% lower at INR 4,740.95. On the other hand, Hindustan Unilever was the only Nifty 50 constituent in the green and closed 0.2% higher at INR 2,249.40.

 

Nine Nifty 50 stocks – Hindalco Industries, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, Reliance Industries, Oil and Natural Gas Corp., Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, Titan Co., and Tata Consultancy Services – hit their 52-week lows on Monday. In the Nifty 200, 41 stocks hit their lowest levels in 52 weeks. 

 

Metal was the worst hit sector Monday amid the overall sell-off. Metal prices are directly linked to demand in China and any pressure on the Chinese economy could weaken their prices, Ashutosh Mishra, head of research at Ashika Stock Broking, said. Tata Steel and JSW Steel closed nearly 8% lower each. The rich valuations of steel stocks limit any potential upside, analysts said. The Nifty Metal fell the most among sectoral indices and ended down nearly 7?ter hitting a 52-week low of 7690.20 points.

 

Monday, Tata Steel said its crude steel production in India in the March quarter increased just 2% on year and fell 3.2% sequentially. JSW Steel said its crude steel production rose 12% on year and 9% on quarter.

 

Other Nifty 50 stocks such as Shriram Finance, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Motors, and Adani Enterprises also fell 5-6%. Tata Motors came off lows but closed nearly 6% lower after media reports said that the company's UK-based subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover decided to pause shipments of UK-made cars to the US as it assesses the fallout of Trump's 25% tariff on car imports. JLR's March quarter retail sales were down over 5% on year, while wholesale sales volume was flat, the company said Monday.

 

The Nifty Oil & Gas closed 3% lower following the sharp decline in global crude oil prices to four-year lows. The index fell to its lowest level in 52 weeks on concerns about a likely slowdown in crude oil demand due to the disruption in global trade amid US tariffs and the increase in output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, analysts said. 

 

Intra-day, Reliance Industries fell 7.5% to its lowest level since October 2023 and Oil and Natural Gas Corp. declined over 9% to its lowest since January 2024. However, both stocks recovered some of the losses and closed 3.2% and 2.7% lower, respectively. Lower crude oil prices will likely hurt ONGC and Gas Authority of India and RIL's gas crackers, ET Now reported, quoting JP Morgan. 

 

Brent crude oil prices fell on fears of a global tariff war, which poses downside risks to global oil demand growth in 2025, JM Financial Services said in a report Sunday. At 1723 IST, Brent crude oil June contract traded on the Intercontinental Exchange was $64.17 per barrel, down over 2%. Some analysts said that Brent crude oil may touch $55 per barrel in 2025, which would be the lowest level since February 2021.

 

Information technology stocks also fell sharply on fears of a recession in the US, with Mphasis declining the most and closing nearly 6% down. A recession in the US would mean lower IT spending by clients, posing risks to Indian IT companies which earn more than half of their revenue from the world's largest economy, analysts said. Coforge, Infosys, and HCL Technologies closed 3-4% down.  

 

Among Nifty 200 stocks, only five closed higher. Siemens ended 15% higher and was the top gainer in the index after the demerger of the company's energy business to Siemens Energy India. Fast-moving consumer goods companies such as Britannia Industries, Godrej Consumer Products, and Hindustan Unilever were the other gainers and closed 0.2-0.7% higher. In the Nifty 500 index, 17 stocks ended in the green.

 

* Of the Nifty 50 stocks, 1 rose and 49 fell

* Of the Sensex stocks, one rose and 29 fell

* On the NSE, 327 stocks rose, 2,640 fell, and 69 were unchanged

* On the BSE, 570 stocks rose, 3,515 fell, and 140 were unchanged

* Nifty Metal: down 6.8%; Nifty Realty: down 5.7%; Nifty FMCG: down 1.1%

 

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BSE                                               NSE

Sensex: 73137.90, down 2226.79 points or 3.0%       Nifty 50: 22161.60, down 742.85 points or 3.2%

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S&P BSE Sensitive Index	Nifty 50
Lifetime High: 85978.25 (Sept. 27, 2024)	: Lifetime High: 26277.35 (Sept. 27, 2024)
Record Close High: 85836.12 (Sept. 26, 2024)	: Record Close High: 26216.05 (Sept. 26, 2024)
2025 1st day close: 78507.41 (Jan. 1)	: 2025 1st day close: 23742.90 (Jan. 1)
2025 Closing High: 79943.71 (Jan. 2)	: 2025 Closing High: 24188.65 (Jan. 2)
2025 Closing Low: 72989.93 (Mar. 4)	: 2025 Closing Low: 22082.65 (Mar. 4)
2025 High (intraday): 80072.99 (Jan. 3)	: 2025 High (intraday): 24226.70 (Jan. 2)
2025 Low (intraday): 71425.01 (Apr. 7)	: 2025 Low (intraday): 21743.65 (Apr. 7)
2024 1st day close: 72271.94 (Jan. 1)	: 2024 1st day close: 21741.90 (Jan. 1)
2024 Closing High: 85836.12 (Sept. 26)	: 2024 Closing High: 26216.05 (Sept. 26)
2024 Closing Low: 70370.55 (Jan. 23)	: 2024 Closing Low: 21238.80 (Jan. 23)
2024 High (intraday): 85978.25 (Sep. 27)	: 2024 High (intraday): 26277.35 (Sept. 27)
2024 Low (intraday): 70001.60 (Jan. 24)	: 2024 Low (intraday): 21137.20 (Jan. 24)
2023 1st day close: 61167.79 (Jan. 2)	: 2023 1st day close: 18197.45 (Jan. 2)
2023 Closing High: 72410.38 (Dec. 28)	: 2023 Closing High: 21778.70 (Dec. 28)
2023 Closing Low: 59288.35 (Feb. 27)	: 2023 Closing Low: 17311.80 (Oct. 17)
2023 High (intraday): 72484.34 (Dec. 28)	: 2023 High (intraday): 21801.45 (Dec. 28)
2023 Low (intraday): 58699.20 (Jan. 30)	: 2023 Low (intraday): 17098.55 (Jan. 17)
2022 1st day close: 59183.22 (Jan. 3)	: 2022 1st day close: 17625.70 (Jan. 3)
2022 Closing High: 63284.19 (Dec. 1)	: 2022 Closing High: 18812.50 (Dec. 1)
2022 Closing Low: 51360.42 (Jun. 17)	: 2022 Closing Low: 15293.50 (Jun. 17)
2022 High (intraday): 63583.07 (Dec. 1)	: 2022 High (intraday): 18887.60 (Dec. 1)
2022 Low (intraday): 50921.22 (Jun. 17)	: 2022 Low (intraday): 15183.40 (Jun. 17)
2021 Closing High: 61305.95 (Oct. 14)	: 2021 Closing High: 18338.55 (Oct. 14)
2021 Closing Low: 46285.77 (Jan. 29)	: 2021 Closing Low: 13634.60 (Jan. 29)
2021 High (intraday): 61353.25 (Oct. 14)	: 2021 High (intraday): 18350.75 (Oct. 14)
2021 Low (intraday): 46160.46 (Jan. 29)	: 2021 Low (intraday): 13596.75 (Jan. 29)
2020 Closing High: 47751.33 (Dec. 31)	: 2020 Closing High: 13981.95 (Dec. 30)
2020 Closing Low: 25981.24 (Mar. 23)	: 2020 Closing Low: 7610.25 (Mar. 23)
2020 High (intraday): 47896.97 (Dec. 31)	: 2020 High (intraday): 14024.85 (Dec. 31)
2020 Low (intraday): 25638.90 (Mar. 24)	: 2020 Low (intraday): 7511.10 (Mar. 24)
2019 High (intraday): 41809.96 (Dec. 20)	: 2019 High (intraday): 12293.90 (Dec. 20)
2019 Low (intraday): 35287.16 (Feb. 19)	: 2019 Low (intraday): 10583.65 (Jan. 29)
2018 High (intraday): 38938.91(Aug. 28))	: 2018 High(intraday): 11760.20 (Aug. 28)
2018 Low (intraday): 32483.8 (Mar. 23)	: 2018 Low (intraday): 9951.9 (Mar. 23)
2017 High (intraday): 34005.37 (Dec. 26)	: 2017 High(intraday): 10515.10 (Dec. 26)

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End

 

US$1 = INR 85.83

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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