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Informist, Monday, Apr. 7, 2025

 

NEW DELHI – India's exports to the US may fall 6.4% on year, or $5.76 billion, in 2025 on account of the reciprocal tariffs imposed by Washington, according to a study by the Global Trade Research Initiative. Indian goods exported to the US are set to attract 26% extra duty from Wednesday. 

 

In 2025, India's exports to the US from the marine sector may drop 20%, followed by 18.0?ll in iron and steel exports, 15.3% in gems andd jewellery, 12.1% in auto components, and 12.0% in telecom and electronic products, the think tank said in a report. "Other categories such as plastics and articles thereof (-9.4%), carpets (-6.3%), petroleum products (-5.2%), organic chemicals (-2.2%), and machinery (-2.0%) are also expected to be negatively impacted."

 

India had exported goods worth $80.78 billion to the US in 2024. This may decline to $75.02 billion in the current calendar year, according to the GTRI study, which entails limitations like change in exchange rates, global demand, supply chain dynamics, non-tariff barriers. "The presence of long-term contracts or strategic partnerships may buffer or delay the full impact of tariffs, making short-term projections less precise," the report said.

 

On the bright side, India could see modest export gains in sectors like textiles and apparel, ceramic product, glues and enzymes, and inorganic chemicals, where the US has imposed higher tariffs on competing countries like China, Vietnam, and Pakistan, according to the GTRI study. The US has imposed 34% duty on Chinese goods, 46% on imports from Vietnam, and 29% on Pakistani goods. 

 

The think tank deduced the sector-wise impact of reciprocal tariffs based on each sector's exposure to the US market, as well as the jump in duty from the tariff that the products attracted until April. The study also factors in the duty imposed on goods from competing nations. "While the overall effect of the new tariffs points toward a decline in trade, India's competitive position in select product segments may help cushion some of the losses," the think tank mentioned in its report.  End

 

US$1 = INR 85.88

 

Reported by Krity Ambey

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

 

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